2014 NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Hello again, sportz freaks! I hope you are all as excited as I am about this upcoming weekend's slate of NFL playoff games. I have been making predictions in the post-season since 2003 and on this site since 2010, and I'm hard-pressed to recall a year in which the final four was more enticing than the one that lies before us on Sunday. In the NFC, it's a battle of new-age quarterbacks in a white-hot rivalry between Seattle and San Francisco. The AFC offers a struggle between "old-school" pocket passers as we get yet another chapter in the historic Manning-Brady rivalry. If that doesn't spell ratings, I'm not quite sure what does. I think I've wasted enough time, so let's get down to picking. I went 3-1 last weekend, bringing me to 5-3 overall in the playoffs. A nice 2-0 sweep on Sunday would be great. Let's get started, shall we?

So, We Meet Again. Will Brady or Manning Win Latest Bout in Classic Rivalry?

   Brace yourselves, folks. This may be the very last time we see Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off in the post-season, and it couldn't come with more on the line than Sunday's contest. The Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home) are feeling good about themselves after ousting the red-hot San Diego Chargers last weekend. Except for a late surge by the Bolts, Denver handled them for the majority of the game and more importantly, they were able to close out at the end: something they couldn't do back in week 12 against New England. Manning didn't look his best, totaling just 230 yards with 2 TD's and a pick, but the ground game kept them moving and the defense played surprisingly well. It wasn't their most impressive victory of the season, but it certainly removed some of the doubt fans may have had about this team after last year's debacle against Baltimore. 

   Switching sides, New England continues to impress me week in and week out. Brady has the Pats (13-4, 4-4 away) scoring 28.6 points per game and all without the likes of Wes Welker, who is now in Denver, and Rob Gronkowski whose season ended in week 14. Unheralded stars such as Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and last week, LaGarrette Blount are shining brightly for perhaps the most surprising New England team we've seen since Belichick and Brady first came onto the scene. Their 43-22 thrashing of the Colts last Saturday was nothing short of impressive, as the somewhat underrated Indianapolis defense had absolutely no answers for the punishing ground game New England unleashed. If they can remain just as balanced on Sunday, this will be an extremely tough task for the Broncos. 

   I think that these two teams are quite well-matched, but if I'm to be honest, I can't help but look back at the meeting between Denver and New England in week 12 to help make my decision. The Broncos got up early, leading 24-0 at the half and slowly but surely squandered the lead away before eventually falling in OT. It's extremely concerning to think that such Denver can give up that type of lead so quickly, and even more-so given the fact that Brady has come back to win games his entire career. This being said, however, I think what week 12 really tells us is that the Broncos are the superior football team here. What? How can that be? You just said that the Pats beat Denver outright and did it in comeback fashion! Well, that's just it. I think a couple of things happened on that cold, November night. And no, none of it had to do with the temperature. For one, New England had its' raucous home-crowd fueling it back to victory. Secondly, the Broncos lit New England up for 24 points and 270 yards in the first half. From there, they cruised and got a bit too comfortable with their lead. This is something I do not expect to happen on Sunday. The Broncos are too good at home, and I am really starting to believe that Peyton is on a mission. What better way for him to get one shot at the Lombardi trophy than knocking off his long-time rival?

Prediction: Manning, Brady Shine Brightly, but Manning Outlasts Brady to send Broncos to Super Bowl: 34-27.

How the West Will Win: Which Pacific Foe Will Book a Trip to Metlife?

   In what may perhaps be a passing of the torch, so-to-speak, the end of the Denver-New England will make way for a match-up between two quarterbacks with a majorly contrasting style to that of Manning and Brady. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson have battled for two long years now, and could very well be the future of this league. But are they, really? Kaepernick has played well during the 49ers eight-game win streak, but nothing spectacular. Wilson has been even more mediocre, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game in the last four with four td's and three interceptions. It's funny how a quarterback will always steal the spotlight on a good team, when truthfully Seattle and San Francisco have not gotten by with new-age offenses, but rather old-school ground and pound football and solid defense. I guess they're not as modern as we thought. 

   We begin this conversation by discussing the white-hot San Francisco 49ers. Though a wildcard, the Niners are 14-4 on the season and have won eight straight contests, including three straight on the road. They are 8-2 away from home this season, and moreover, Kaepernick is unbeaten on the road in the post-season. Sure, beating the 'Hawks at Century Link Field is no easy task, but Jim Harbaugh's team has shown us that they are not afraid to enter hostile territory. This is an extremely confident 49ers team, and one that has a lot to prove in Seattle on Sunday. They have certainly showed that they can compete with the Seahawks, outlasting them 19-17 in week 14. However, this is a team that was blown-out by the Seahawks 29-3 in week 2, and have been outscored 71-19 in their last two trips to Seattle. If Kaepernick and company want to head back to the Super Bowl, they're going to have to get it done in the most brutal of conditions. 

   While not quite as hot, the Seattle Seahawks have definitely been the best team in the NFC this season, and perhaps the NFL. They are 14-3, while boasting an impressive 8-1 record at home. What has to be at least of some concern is that two of their three losses have come in the past five games, one of which was against this same San Francisco team. As mentioned, Russell Wilson has been less than stellar in this stretch, but the Seahawks are still winning games based on defense and an undeniable effort on the part of Marshawn Lynch. Another solid day for Mr. Skittles will have to be in order if Seattle hopes to play for the grand prize. 

   This impending match-up between NFC West rivals, in my opinion, is an absolute toss-up. The two teams are extremely similar on both sides of the ball, as well as on the sidelines. The noise will certainly be a factor, but I don't think it will be as bothersome as people may think. So since I have been having such a hard time deciding, I'm going to rely on one stat to make my decision. Since 2008, only four #1 seeds have played on Super Bowl Sunday, and of those four, just one has come from the NFC. In addition, just once (2010) have both #1 seeds played in the big game since Super Bowl XXVIII, twenty one years ago. If I'm going to pick Denver, then I am also going to go with my gut which tells me that the Niners will head back to the Superbowl. 

Prediction: San Fran Survives Gruesome Battle, Stun Seahawks 26-20. 

   Well, there you have it. I'm going with a Denver-San Francisco showdown in Super Bowl XLVIII, although in recent memory this is the first time I can recall a year in which I'd feel less satisfied by any of the possible match-ups. Regardless of Sunday's winners, the Super Bowl is shaping up to be quite spectacular. Enjoy the games folks, and I'll be back next week to discuss more football. 

2014 NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

Will Beast Mode Take Full Effect Against the Saints?

   Well, here we go again. The game in which "beast-mode" originated will once again be brought to life this Saturday when the Saints head to Seattle. This is a rematch from a week 13 beat-down, courtesy of the Seahawks. In that game, the Saints were completely ineffective on offense, accumulating just 188 total yards to Seattle's 429. The defense wasn't much better, giving up an average of 6.2 yards per play. It was an overall dud for Brees and company, and you can be sure that Sean Payton and Rob Ryan will have their team playing much more competitively this time around. 

   The Saints are coming off a motivational victory in Philly which finally closed the book on whether or not they could win on the road. As great as it was, the Saints didn't, in all honesty, look good doing it. The defense played very well, shutting down an explosive Eagle offense. However, Brees was mediocre, throwing two interceptions against a suspect Philadelphia defensive unit. If he plays even close to that on Saturday, the Seahawks will eat him alive. He is going to have to kick it up a notch if his team wants to move on to the NFC Championship next Sunday. 

   On the other side, the Seahawks are fully rested and ready to continue (so they hope) their dominant ways at home. Before being upset in week 15 by the Cardinals, Seattle had not lost a home game since Dec. 24th, 2011: 14 straight victories. The win by Arizona does show that the 'Hawks can be beaten at Qualcomm, but it is extremely difficult to do so. I think that Payton will throw everything he can at Seattle and the Saints will keep this thing a lot closer than in week 13. However, I feel the Seahawks are just too talented on both sides of the ball and will be able to pull out the win. 

Prediction: Late TD Drive by Wilson sends 'Hawks to Title Game: 26-23. 

Do Gronk-less Pats Have Enough Juice For Another Playoff Run?

   For the second week in a row, I find the Colts to be in the most complicated contest. Just as with the Chiefs, I can't quite seem to get a read on Indy, and I'm having a hard time doing the same with the Pats. Just when I think I've figured these teams out, they do something to sway me in the opposite direction. In fact, despite my prediction of a Colts' victory last week, Andrew Luck and co. had me completely baffled in the first half and looked like a third-rate ball club. They were able to turn it on in the second half, but most teams won't be as generous as the Chiefs. Getting down by 28 in New England is not a situation in which Luck will be able to dig himself out. 

   As I said, the Patriots are a bit tricky as well. This is a team that came into the season having lost quite a bit of talent, including Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, Rob Gronkowski (for much of the season), and of course, Aaron Hernandez. At best, I had pinned them as an 8-8, 9-7 team with a small chance of winning the division. However, Brady and Belichick have continuously proven that they are the commanders of this team and can work with any number of personnel on offense. Not only did they win the East, but they did so with an impressive 12-4 record. As much as I hate admitting it, Brady is the best quarterback in the league right now (yes, Peyton, that includes you) and has his team rolling once again. Add this to the fact that the Pats are virtually unstoppable in post-season home games (11-3 since '02, Brady's first season) and I have a hard time picturing anything but a New England victory. The Pats have surprised me with losses in this scenario in the past, including last year's defeat at the hands of the Ravens. However, I believe Baltimore was a team of destiny and I do not feel the same way about the Colts, as miraculous as their win was last week. I've got a different team in mind for my 'Cinderella', which I'll get to later. Pats win. 

Prediction: No 'Luck' in New England: Pats roll over Colts, 34-19

Which Top-Tier 'D' Will Stand up in Charlotte?

   Three months ago, an unprecedented run began in Carolina. The Panthers had just come off an ugly 22-6 beating at the hands of the Cardinals (which doesn't sound so bad now, judging by how Arizona finished), and were an unimpressive 1-3 after their first four. In week six, however, Cam Newton and the Panthers got things rolling with a 35-10 thumping of the Vikings and went on to win eleven out of their final twelve games, with the lone loss coming at the Super Dome. The Panthers remind me a lot of another team playing this weekend, and that would be the Indianapolis Colts. They're a talented team with a talented quarterback who sometimes underachieve at the oddest moments. They're also a team who, outside of a couple of blowouts (against Atlanta, Tampa), win a lot of close games in the final seconds. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as they have proven they can win in clutch situations. Carolina's most impressive victories this season have come at home against the Saints in week 15, and at the 49ers back in week 10. They are 7-1 at home this season, with the only loss coming way back in week 1 to the Seahawks. They have thrived on defense all year and hope to do so again on Sunday. 

   Speaking of defense, I would be remised if I didn't once again mention the San Francisco 49ers. This team has been dominating on defense in the past two months, and proved themselves once again at Green Bay last week in unfavorable conditions. Although they were unable to force any turnovers, the Niners limited Aaron Rodgers to just 177 passing yards, and the Pack to just 281 yards total. They sacked Rodgers four times in that contest and did not let him get comfortable at all in the pocket. If they hope to win on Sunday, they will have to do the same to Cam Newton, who we know presents a much larger threat in terms of the ground game. They did just that in their week 10 loss, limiting Super Cam to 184 total yards with a pick and three sacks. However, it was the Panther 'D' that really shut things down as they held Colin Kaepernick to just 107 total yards, as well as sacking him six times and forcing one interception. 'Kap has got to be a whole lot more effective on Sunday for the Niners to have any shot. Carolina won't be as forgiving on the edges as Green Bay was, and so Kaepernick is going to have to find another way to be successful. 

   What worries me about San Francisco is that all four of their losses this season have come against teams that are still in the playoffs. They have lost to the Colts, Seahawks, Saints and as mentioned, the Panthers. Their most impressive wins came at home against Seattle and two victories against Green Bay. Their resume' leaves a bit to be desired, but they keep on finding ways to win. I flip-flopped on this game a bit before coming to a conclusion, but I can't help but foresee an all-NFC West championship game. For that reason, I think the 49ers will squeak by and exact revenge for their week 10 defeat. 

Prediction: 4th Quarter Goal-Line Stand Propels 'Niners past Carolina, 20-16. 

   

Can Rivers Keep The Bolts Rolling?

   Last, but not least, we come to the Sunday late game between the Broncos and the Chargers. There isn't a whole lot to say about Denver that hasn't already been said. Peyton Manning has been phenomenal all season, shattering records left and right. He has a plethora of offensive weapons, including Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, and a nice safety valve in Julius Thomas. In addition, Denver's running core is solid as well, as Moreno and Ball have nicely carried the weight all year. Their defense has suspect, but the amount of points they put up have covered up that blemish. In order to beat the Broncos, you better be prepared to score at least thirty. In fact, the three games in which Denver lost, the opponents scored 39, 34 and 27 points respectively. Even still, scoring a bunch doesn't secure a victory. Just ask the Cowboys, who ran all over Dallas for a whopping 48 points and still lost by three. There aren't a lot of ways to beat this team, but the Chargers just might hold that key...

   Every season there is one team which enters the post-season in remarkable fashion, either by stringing together a bunch of wins or by sneaking in with a lot of outside help. The San Diego Chargers are offenders of both, having won four straight prior to last week's victory in Cincy, and gained an excess amount of support from the Dolphins and Ravens, who decided they'd rather take January off in favor of the golf course. What's usually the most intriguing fact about these last-second playoff teams is that they often go on to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. Such beneficiaries of this theory are the Ravens, Giants (twice), and even Green Bay. You may recall that although the Packers have been a great team in the past three years, their Super Bowl run was nothing short of incredible. I'm not sure that San Diego has that same type of aura, but they certainly have gotten things together in a hurry. Since week 14, the Chargers are 5-0, averaging almost thirty points a game and giving up only sixteen. They have beaten Kansas City, Cincinnati and Denver in that stretch, all three of whom made the playoffs. Rivers has averaged 195 yards per game since week 14, which isn't great but he has ten touchdowns to just two interceptions in that span. His lack of turnovers has been very key in their current run. 

   The main factor in San Diego's win at Denver in week 15 was a strong run game. Mathews, Woodhead and Brown combined for 168 yards on the ground and kept Manning on the sideline quite a bit. Establishing this type of scheme early on Sunday will be important for San Diego. Not only do they want to keep the ball out of Manning's hands, but a balanced attack allows for Rivers to get the ball to his weapons Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen. Although most statistics point in the opposite direction, my gut is having a hard time siding with Peyton, who is known to struggle in the post-season. I have seen this movie before, where Manning sets the world on fire for sixteen weeks in the regular season and then fails to come through in the playoffs. I am going to go against the odds-makers this week and pick the San Diego Chargers as my upset special. 

Prediction: Rivers Shines as Bolts Stun Broncos, 30-24. 

That does it for another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk. I was 2-2 last weekend, and so I hope to improve for this week's set of games. Enjoy, everyone!

2014 NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Can K.C. Rebound From Week 16 Dud?

   Welcome back, sportz freaks, to my annual NFL post-season prediction blog. I'm diving right into this one with what I believe to be the most complicated selection of this coming weekend. The Colts and Chiefs have been two of the most maddeningly difficult teams to figure out this season. Kansas City boasts an impressive 11-5 record, but has stumbled as of late. Indy has come on strong in recent weeks, winning four of their last five but have suffered from mediocre performances against sub-par foes. These teams met two weeks ago at Arrowhead, an affair the Colts won convincingly. The Chiefs are going to need to change things up quite a bit in order to avoid a repeat of that thrashing. Alex Smith, for starters, will need to eliminate the turnovers he uncharacteristically committed, as he threw a pick and lost a pair of fumbles. K.C. is a good road team, but recent struggles and a lack of a convincing schedule have turned many off to their success. The Chiefs have beaten just one team who is in the post-season, and that came in week 3 at Philadelphia. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has beaten the likes of Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, although these all came prior to the Colts' week 8 bye. I think what it comes down to is the play of second-year quarterback Andrew Luck. If he plays as well as he has in the past month, the Chiefs are going to have a rough afternoon. Indy proved that Jamaal Charles can have a great day but still not impact the outcome of a game, and so it will take more than a solid performance from him to get the job done. I believe the shaky K.C. defense will be exposed once again as the Colts roll.

Prediction: Luck strikes twice as Colts cruise by K.C. 30-19

Is Cold too Much for Brees, Saints?

   Anyone who has even glanced at ESPN in the past week is almost assuredly vomiting from the talk of Drew Brees heading into the cold in Philadelphia on Saturday. I've never been one to believe that weather impacts great players. Those who are stars will shine, regardless of the conditions. I think that what is a bit of a concern, however, is the fact that the Saints are 0-5 under Sean Payton in road playoff games. They have shown us that, once outside the Dome, they are an average team at best. If history is any indication of this, just ask the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks from a couple of years ago. Comparing Philly to the hostile environment that is Seattle is probably not fair, but it is a bit alarming to see New Orleans perform so poorly in these types of scenarios. For me, it's not whether or not Brees can handle the cold, it's if the team can rise up aove allegations of their mediocrity on the road. 

   Lost in the midst of the aforementioned conversation is the season the Philadelphia Eagles are having. Chip Kelly has taken the Eagles, 4th place in the NFC East in 2012, and spun them around into 10-6 division winners, albeit in a sub-par division. Nick Foles has played like a man-possessed, and a re-vamped offense has given the likes of LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson new life. Although the saints possess a plethora of weapons, including Marques Colston, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, the depth of the Eagles is no joke either. In addition to McCoy and Jackson, Kelly has also utilized tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek to perfection, and has added another deep ball threat in Riley Cooper. Position-wise, the Eagles actually match up quite well. Ironically, I believe that what will determine the outcome of the game is defense, and I will go on record in saying that scores will fall well below expectations. Though porous at times, I think the Eagles' pass rush will make Brees just uncomfortable enough to pick up the win. 

Prediction: McCoy, Eagles Soar Past Saints: 27-20

Can Unlikely Playoff Berth Spark Chargers?

   Two weeks ago, the San Diego Chargers sat at 6-8 and had just a 3% chance to make the post-season. Flash forward to week seventeen, and the unthinkable outcome had taken place. Baltimore and Miami, both of whom had much control over their playoff chances in the final month, inexcusably threw games away and a late playoff push by Pittsburgh fell short. Add this to a thrilling overtime victory over Kansas City, and the Chargers are your #6 seed in the AFC. The NFL truly is about teams getting hot at the right time, and the Chargers are certainly beginning to warm up. 

   Flip sides to Cincinnati, and you'll see a team with much to prove. This is a club that has been bounced from the post-season in back to back years by Houston, and who have not won a single playoff game under Marv Lewis. Not helping matters is the inconsistency of Quarterback Andy Dalton, who has looks like a star some weeks, and a dud in others. He has played well as of late, however, leading the Bengals to victories in five of their last six. 

   This game has had the 'cold' discussion thrown in as well,  but again I believe it to be a non-factor. To be honest, I feel the biggest factor in this game will be crowd noise. Cincinnati hasn't hosted a playoff game since the '09 season (a loss to the Jets) and haven't won in the post-season since 1990. The fans are going to have to get up in the cold for this one and really get behind Dalton to give them the edge they've had all year, going 8-0 at home. I think they will, and I feel that Cincy's excess of weapons will be too much for San Diego to handle. 

Prediction: Bengals go 'Green' as A.J. helps Cincy win first Playoff game in 24 Years: 23-16.

Now Healthy, Do Packers Have Another Playoff Run in Store?

   It came very late in the season, but the return of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb could not have come at a better time for Green Bay. Virtually dismissed from the post-season after a 40-10 Thanksgiving thumping by the Lions, the Pack have surged back to win three of their last four en route to an NFC North championship. Never had the Packers looked as vulnerable as they did in the weeks without Rodgers, but Matt Flynn and company stuck around just long enough to win the mediocre division. As previously mentioned, it's not how you start but how you finish, and Green Bay is here and ready to go. 

    San Francisco, on the other hand, is perhaps the hottest team playing this weekend. The Niners have won 6 straight and 11 of their last 13. A huge portion of this can be attributed to the strong play of the San Fran defense. In their last six games, San Fran has allowed an average of 15.6 points per game and have caused 9 turnovers in this span, returning two for scores. Colin Kaepernick has played well in this stretch also, racking up 232 passing yards per game with ten td's and one pick, as well as 32 yards per game on the ground and a score. He hasn't been lighting the world on fire, but he has limited his turnovers and is getting the job done. 

   The lingering question here is whether or not Aaron Rodgers is fresh enough to get his team back to where they were in the past few seasons. We know he's healthy now, but he didn't exactly look like the A-Rod of old in a win over the Bears last week. In fact, it took a desperation 4th down heave to the endzone to beat Chicago, a team who had its fair s hare of blown opportunities as well. Rodgers looked a bit quirky moving in the pocket, as anyone coming off a broken collarbone might. A relentless pass rush from San Fran is not exactly the remedy for this, and I think the rust will really start to show for Mr. Discount Doublecheck. 

Prediction: Suffocating 'D' too much for Rodgers, Pack. Niners roll, 28-17. 

That does it for this week. Tune in next Friday as I run down the divisional playoff match-ups as we begin the march toward Super Bowl XLVIII. Enjoy the games, folks!