Can K.C. Rebound From Week 16 Dud?
Welcome back, sportz freaks, to my annual NFL post-season prediction blog. I'm diving right into this one with what I believe to be the most complicated selection of this coming weekend. The Colts and Chiefs have been two of the most maddeningly difficult teams to figure out this season. Kansas City boasts an impressive 11-5 record, but has stumbled as of late. Indy has come on strong in recent weeks, winning four of their last five but have suffered from mediocre performances against sub-par foes. These teams met two weeks ago at Arrowhead, an affair the Colts won convincingly. The Chiefs are going to need to change things up quite a bit in order to avoid a repeat of that thrashing. Alex Smith, for starters, will need to eliminate the turnovers he uncharacteristically committed, as he threw a pick and lost a pair of fumbles. K.C. is a good road team, but recent struggles and a lack of a convincing schedule have turned many off to their success. The Chiefs have beaten just one team who is in the post-season, and that came in week 3 at Philadelphia. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has beaten the likes of Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, although these all came prior to the Colts' week 8 bye. I think what it comes down to is the play of second-year quarterback Andrew Luck. If he plays as well as he has in the past month, the Chiefs are going to have a rough afternoon. Indy proved that Jamaal Charles can have a great day but still not impact the outcome of a game, and so it will take more than a solid performance from him to get the job done. I believe the shaky K.C. defense will be exposed once again as the Colts roll.
Prediction: Luck strikes twice as Colts cruise by K.C. 30-19
Is Cold too Much for Brees, Saints?
Anyone who has even glanced at ESPN in the past week is almost assuredly vomiting from the talk of Drew Brees heading into the cold in Philadelphia on Saturday. I've never been one to believe that weather impacts great players. Those who are stars will shine, regardless of the conditions. I think that what is a bit of a concern, however, is the fact that the Saints are 0-5 under Sean Payton in road playoff games. They have shown us that, once outside the Dome, they are an average team at best. If history is any indication of this, just ask the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks from a couple of years ago. Comparing Philly to the hostile environment that is Seattle is probably not fair, but it is a bit alarming to see New Orleans perform so poorly in these types of scenarios. For me, it's not whether or not Brees can handle the cold, it's if the team can rise up aove allegations of their mediocrity on the road.
Lost in the midst of the aforementioned conversation is the season the Philadelphia Eagles are having. Chip Kelly has taken the Eagles, 4th place in the NFC East in 2012, and spun them around into 10-6 division winners, albeit in a sub-par division. Nick Foles has played like a man-possessed, and a re-vamped offense has given the likes of LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson new life. Although the saints possess a plethora of weapons, including Marques Colston, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, the depth of the Eagles is no joke either. In addition to McCoy and Jackson, Kelly has also utilized tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek to perfection, and has added another deep ball threat in Riley Cooper. Position-wise, the Eagles actually match up quite well. Ironically, I believe that what will determine the outcome of the game is defense, and I will go on record in saying that scores will fall well below expectations. Though porous at times, I think the Eagles' pass rush will make Brees just uncomfortable enough to pick up the win.
Prediction: McCoy, Eagles Soar Past Saints: 27-20
Can Unlikely Playoff Berth Spark Chargers?
Two weeks ago, the San Diego Chargers sat at 6-8 and had just a 3% chance to make the post-season. Flash forward to week seventeen, and the unthinkable outcome had taken place. Baltimore and Miami, both of whom had much control over their playoff chances in the final month, inexcusably threw games away and a late playoff push by Pittsburgh fell short. Add this to a thrilling overtime victory over Kansas City, and the Chargers are your #6 seed in the AFC. The NFL truly is about teams getting hot at the right time, and the Chargers are certainly beginning to warm up.
Flip sides to Cincinnati, and you'll see a team with much to prove. This is a club that has been bounced from the post-season in back to back years by Houston, and who have not won a single playoff game under Marv Lewis. Not helping matters is the inconsistency of Quarterback Andy Dalton, who has looks like a star some weeks, and a dud in others. He has played well as of late, however, leading the Bengals to victories in five of their last six.
This game has had the 'cold' discussion thrown in as well, but again I believe it to be a non-factor. To be honest, I feel the biggest factor in this game will be crowd noise. Cincinnati hasn't hosted a playoff game since the '09 season (a loss to the Jets) and haven't won in the post-season since 1990. The fans are going to have to get up in the cold for this one and really get behind Dalton to give them the edge they've had all year, going 8-0 at home. I think they will, and I feel that Cincy's excess of weapons will be too much for San Diego to handle.
Prediction: Bengals go 'Green' as A.J. helps Cincy win first Playoff game in 24 Years: 23-16.
Now Healthy, Do Packers Have Another Playoff Run in Store?
It came very late in the season, but the return of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb could not have come at a better time for Green Bay. Virtually dismissed from the post-season after a 40-10 Thanksgiving thumping by the Lions, the Pack have surged back to win three of their last four en route to an NFC North championship. Never had the Packers looked as vulnerable as they did in the weeks without Rodgers, but Matt Flynn and company stuck around just long enough to win the mediocre division. As previously mentioned, it's not how you start but how you finish, and Green Bay is here and ready to go.
San Francisco, on the other hand, is perhaps the hottest team playing this weekend. The Niners have won 6 straight and 11 of their last 13. A huge portion of this can be attributed to the strong play of the San Fran defense. In their last six games, San Fran has allowed an average of 15.6 points per game and have caused 9 turnovers in this span, returning two for scores. Colin Kaepernick has played well in this stretch also, racking up 232 passing yards per game with ten td's and one pick, as well as 32 yards per game on the ground and a score. He hasn't been lighting the world on fire, but he has limited his turnovers and is getting the job done.
The lingering question here is whether or not Aaron Rodgers is fresh enough to get his team back to where they were in the past few seasons. We know he's healthy now, but he didn't exactly look like the A-Rod of old in a win over the Bears last week. In fact, it took a desperation 4th down heave to the endzone to beat Chicago, a team who had its fair s hare of blown opportunities as well. Rodgers looked a bit quirky moving in the pocket, as anyone coming off a broken collarbone might. A relentless pass rush from San Fran is not exactly the remedy for this, and I think the rust will really start to show for Mr. Discount Doublecheck.
Prediction: Suffocating 'D' too much for Rodgers, Pack. Niners roll, 28-17.
That does it for this week. Tune in next Friday as I run down the divisional playoff match-ups as we begin the march toward Super Bowl XLVIII. Enjoy the games, folks!
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