Welcome back, sportz freaks to another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! Wellp, we're down to four. In the last two weekends I have gone 3-1 in my picks for a respectable 6-2 record. With three games to go, the pressure is on now, and it is really on the football clubs from New York, New England, San Francisco and Baltimore. This weekend's match ups are intriguing, but perhaps even more enticing are the potential clashes we could see come Super Sunday. Each potential game that could take place in Indianapolis carries with it some special meaning.
The least exciting of all these would come as a result of a San Francisco-New England Super Bowl, but the story is still there. Some may remember the early years of what has turned out to be a stellar career for Tom Brady. It was in this stage of his career that many sports analysts began linking Brady to former 49er great Joe Montana. How fitting would it be for Tom Brady to net his fourth Super Bowl championship against such a legendary franchise, and one whose old quarterback he had once been compared to?
The other team San Francisco would face on February 5th should they win this Sunday would be the Baltimore Ravens. There isn't really all that much history between these two franchises, but there certainly is plenty to go around for the two head coaches. Should the 49ers and Ravens face off on football's greatest stage, we will witness history as two head-coach brothers would meet for the first time in Super Bowl history. Save for the pure heart ache that will be felt by these two young men's parents, the brotherly rivalry would make for one hell of a football game.
Baltimore could also see the New York Giants in the championship, a sight that would almost certainly bring back horrid memories to all followers of "Big Blue". For those who may not remember (or those in New York who choose not to), the Ravens anihilated the G-men way back in Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa, 34-7. Ray Lewis was the MVP of that game, and the tank still lurks in the defensive backfield in Baltimore. Surely, Eli Manning would fair a whole hell of a lot better than Kerry Collins, and the rematch from a game that took place more than eleven years ago would (hopefully) have better results, as well.
As you may know, however, a New York win this Sunday earns the Giants a Super Bowl rematch regardless of the AFC representative. Their other potential opponent, the Patriots, certainly recall Super Bowl XLII, where Eli and the heavy underdog Giants stunned the football universe, beating the previously unbeaten Pats 17-14 in Glendale, AZ. A New York-New England rematch in the Super Bowl is perhaps the most enticing of all the potential match ups, as it not only brings back vivid memories of 2008, but also serves to further instill the natural hatred that exists between these two localities.
I think it's safe to say that no matter which set of teams ends up heading to Lucas Oil Stadium, we are going to witness a fantastic championship, and in some cases, maybe even better. But even though there are four possible games that could take place in early February, only one will inhabit our television screens. So which will it be? Will the Pats continue their dynasty and take their fifth crack at Lombardi's trophy in the past ten years, or will Ray Lewis fulfill his dream of serving Brady the turf on a silver platter? Will Alex Smith's improbable run continue onto Super Sunday, or will Eli and the Giant's experience be too much to handle? We won't know until late Sunday night, but we can certainly speculate. That is what I plan to do, so fasten your seat belts. It's prediction time.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 3:00PM Sunday- Gilette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
#2 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) @ #1 New England Patriots (14-3)
Well, this should be fun. Although New England and Baltimore aren't exactly rivals, there certainly is no love lost between these two tough teams. Just two years ago, the Ravens went into Foxboro and hammered the heavy favorite Patriots with a ground and pound attack and solid defense. You can be sure that Tom Brady and company have vivid memories of that ugly performance, and will look to avenge the loss on Sunday.
Of course, there is some animosity on the side of the Ravens, too. Ray Lewis has made it fairly obvious that he despises Brady, or at least the rules which have protected the quarterback for the past few seasons. Lewis is an old-school defensive back and wants nothing more than to level anyone and everyone at any chance he is given. When certain regulations don't allow him to do so, it creates a frustrating scenario for the veteran linebacker. You'd better believe he will be looking to get after Brady early and often.
A comparison of the quarterbacks will show that Brady is far and away the more elite passer in this contest. There is just no question about it. The guy has three Super Bowl championships and two Super Bowl MVPs to his credit, and is one win away from tying the great Joe Montana for most playoff victories all-time. Brady has been fantastic this season, throwing for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns, while throwing just twelve interceptions. Add the fact that Brady has perhaps his best arsenal of weapons that he has ever had, and he is going to be extremely tough to stop.
Joe Flacco has come under some scrutiny as of late, with some (including teammate Ed Reed) claiming that Flacco doesn't have what it takes to win big games. While that may or may not be true, Flacco has been great as the leading passer for the Ravens, and has been in the post-season in all five of his years as the starter. Flacco doesn't exactly tear it up through the air, but his game-managing skills have proven to be very effective for Baltimore. If he protects the ball and the ground game gets going, the Ravens have a great shot at the upset.
Benjarvus Green-Ellis has been a decent back for the Pats, but the fact is that New England just does not like to run the ball. It's a shame, because when they get the rushing attack going, they can be fairly effective with it. Kevin Faulk will also be active for New England in this game, and the last time that was the case he was extremely effective. Look for Brady to be the pass-happy guy he usually is, but when it's on the ground Green-Ellis is the go-to man.
Ray Rice is perhaps the most prolific running back in the NFL, as he is extremely elusive both on the ground as well as through the air. When these two clubs met in 2010, the Pats had a tremendously difficult time stopping Rice and fell behind early as a result. Rice will undoubtedly be the main weapon for the Ravens on Sunday, as establishing a running game and keeping Tom Brady off the field will be key for a Baltimore victory.
The battle of receivers isn't even close in this one. The Ravens will utilize wideout Anquan Boldin as well as an occasional deep ball to Torrey Smith and passes out of the backfield to Rice. The Pats will bring to the table the most deadly combination of tight ends that this league has ever witnessed in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron hernandez. The Ravens will surely double team the massive Gronkowski, which will frustratingly leave Hernandez in single coverage. On top of these two, Brady's other go-to guy is Wes Welker, who has had a phenomenal season, catching 122 passes for 1,569 yards and nine scores. They will also trot out veteran Deion Branch, who has a Super Bowl MVP of his own. The bottom line is that New England has an unbelievable set of skilled receivers that can do a ton of damage is Brady is given any time to throw.
Defensively, Baltimore has always had a strong unit. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will do their best to create confusion for Tom Brady, and with any luck they will do so enough to get their team the win. The Pats' defense, on the other hand, has been ridiculed all season as being weak, but have been solid in recent weeks. Stopping Ray Rice will be the biggest issue they will have, but doing so will all but ensure a New England victory. What this comes down to is whichever offensive line protects their guy the best.
I talked a couple of weeks ago about how the chips were falling perfectly for the Ravens. The Steelers were out, Baltimore earned a home game, and things were looking bright for the purple birds. Heading to New England is no easy task, especially in the post-season, but one more win and the Ravens will be headed to Indianapolis, a trip that a team from Baltimore has certainly made before..could it be fate?
The one statistic that stands out to me here is that the Pats are 7-1 at home this season, while all three of the Ravens' losses came on the road. Baltimore is a great team at home, but if you take them out of the inner harbor, they tend to struggle. I think they will bring a strong effort but the trend of the home team winning in the AFC will continue.
Prediction: Brady tosses a pair of TD's as Pats outlast stingy Ravens, New England wins 27-21.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP:6:30PM Sunday-Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
#4 New York Giants (11-7) @ #2 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
San Francisco and New York are no strangers when it comes to meeting in big games. Sunday's match up will be another installment of a great rivalry, and this one should be great as well. The 49ers, basement dwellers in the NFC West for the past several years, have had an unbelievable season, winning the division and earning a first round bye, as well as ousting the favorite New Orleans Saints one week ago. They have surprised many thus far, myself included, and suddenly have found themselves a win away from football's biggest stage. A solid defense and a lack of turnovers from quarterback Alex Smith have been the driving force behind San Fran's success. Will they be able to stand up and stop the high-powered Giant offensive attack, and can Smith stay mistake-free against a much stronger defense than he faced a week ago?
The Giants come into this game on a hot streak of their own, having won four in a row, all of which were rather emphatic victories. They knocked off two rivals in the Jets and Cowboys to finish the season, and then walloped the Falcons 24-2 before stunning the defending champion Packers last weekend. Before this recent surge, the Giants seemed rather inconsistent, but have found their stride and are riding a wave of success right now lead by stellar play from Eli Manning and a sound defensive effort. If the G-men can get the ground game going against this tough defense, they'll have a great shot. If they don't run well, it will not be pretty in a rainy San Francisco.
Breaking this down position by position, the Giants have a slight edge as Eli Manning has had perhaps his greatest season thus far in what has become an outstanding career. If someone told me a five years ago that Eli would have a chance to pass his older brother in Super Bowl wins, I'd have said they were nuts. Yet here he is, two wins away from his second Lombardi Trophy, which would be one more than the elder Manning brother. The key for the Giants will be protecting Manning from a stingy 49er defensive front and giving him time to pass.
Alex Smith has had quite the opposite career than his foe this Sunday, as he has often been criticized for his performance. The mere fact that he was named starter this season drew quick ire from the San Fran faithful, as many were unsure he could lead them to the playoffs, let alone the NFC title game. Smith not only did that, but he has led his squad to fourteen wins in seventeen games and needs just one more to get his team to the big game. Smith hasn't exactly been phenomenal, and has been labeled as a 'game manager', but he is getting the job done none the less and those criticisms will be erased if he can get San Francisco two more wins.
The Giants bring a scary two-headed rushing attack with the speedy Ahmad Bradshaw and the beastly Brandon Jacobs. The 49ers have stuffed the run with unbelievable success this season, and gave up just one rushing TD in their sixteen regular season games. Neither back has topped 100 yards rushing in the post-season thus far, and that trend will likely continue on Sunday as the 49ers are merciless against the run.
Frank Gore will be the key back to watch for San Francisco. Gore ran for 92 yards on only thirteen carries last week against the Saints in a game which Alex Smith needed to pass to keep the 'Niners alive. As running backs go, I trust Gore to get a heavier workload and to be more productive than either Jacobs or Bradshaw. The Giants' defense is no joke, but they can be run on.
The Giant receivers are extremely difficult to stop, as Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been lighting it up in recent weeks. In the post-season thus far, Nicks has caught a whopping thirteen balls for 280 yards and four touchdowns. He has been downright untouchable, and if Manning gets time he could burn the San Francisco secondary. Cruz hasn't been in the stat books quite as much, as he has seven catches for just over 100 yards in two post-season games, but 1,500 regular season yards don;t just disappear, so the 49ers will have to key in on both Nicks as well as Cruz.
Last week I belittled the combined efforts of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis as it pertains to a top group of receivers, and they soundly came out and totaled eleven catches, 205 yards and three touchdowns. Me and my big mouth. Crabtree was good in the win, but Davis was a man on a mission. He caught two huge passes on the final drive of the game, including a game-winning fourteen yard strike from Alex Smith with just nine ticks remaining. There is no question that Vernon Davis will be the man to watch for the Giants, and it will be a long night if they can't keep him contained.
These two teams met in mid-November, with San Francisco edging the G-men 27-20. The Giants led all statistical categories in that game with the exception of one: turnovers. That seems to be the key word when you play the 49ers. Just ask the Saints. The Giants gave it up twice in that game and only forced one turnover on the other side of the ball and failed as a result. The 'Niners are a beatable team if you can limit the turnovers, but that has been the problem for so many teams that have fallen to San Fran this year. It could be even tougher for the Giants to protect the ball in the messy condition that awaits them in Candlestick Park.
This will certainly be a classic, gridiron battle between two of the NFL's most prestigious franchises, and defense will be the key for whichever club comes out on top. I think the 49ers showed a lot of guts last week in their victory over the Saints, but the Giants will bring a much stronger defense into San Fran than New Orleans did. The 'Niners also showed us that even though they can earn tough victories that their defense is certainly beatable, as the Saints earned 472 total yards despite just thirty-seven of them coming on the ground. Eli is capable of airing it out, perhaps not quite as effectively as Drew Brees, but effective nonetheless. I predict a tight, sloppy defensive effort from both sides in this one and the scoreboard will reflect it. It's not technically an upset by the numbers, but I think the Giants could have a hard time rushing the passer in the rainy conditions, and as a result will struggle to force turnovers.
Prediction: San Francisco's magical run continues, 49ers edge Giants in mud bowl 20-19.
Well, I haven't gone perfect in a weekend yet in 2012, so with any luck this will be the one. If so, we will be getting what should be a fantastic match between two of football's greatest dynasties. If not, we should still get a great game regardless of Sunday's outcomes. To the fans of any of the remaining four teams, good luck to you and everyone enjoy the games! I'll be back week to talk a bit about the Pro Bowl and to begin discussing the match up for Super Bowl XLVI. Have a great day, sportz freaks!
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