Welcome back, sportz freaks to another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! This has been a particularly busy week, and as a result I will be unable to give as much of an in-depth analysis as it pertains to my picks. So without further a due, let's get right down to business.
Last week, I went 3-1 with my predictions, getting help from the Saints and Texans, as well as the miraculous finish by the Denver Broncos. The Falcons were the only club to let me down last week, but no one's perfect right? Will any of last week's winners come away victorious for a second straight week?
NFC: #3 New Orleans Saints (14-3) @ #2 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
This is the weekend's first game, and should be a dandy. The Saints and Niners will bring two completely different game plans to the table, as New Orleans likes to air it out and make you keep up, while San Fran sticks to a tough ground game and relies on their defense to shut down the opposition.
The Quarterback comparison is fairly lopsided, as Brees has been phenomenal all season. Don't count out Alex Smith, though, as despite his low yardage totals, he has only turned the ball over five times all season. That's an incredible statistic. The question will be whether or not the San Fran 'D' will be able to shut down Brees for four quarters. Don't count on it.
I'll take San Francisco's ground game, as Frank Gore is a tank and the Saints still do not have a true #1 back. I think Darren Sproles could have a big game as a receiver, however, so look for him to make a statement.
The Saints receiving corps is a bit more intimidating, and I also expect Jimmy Graham to go off today as Brees will look for help under pressure. Michael Crabtree is reliable, and Vernon Davis should be effective but outside these two I don't see much action in the passing attack of the 49ers.
Finally, the 49er defensive unit has been solid against the run all season, but will that be effective against a pass-happy Saints team? The New Orleans defense can be had, but they also have enough play-makers to always make something happen.
I think the 49ers will come out fired up a nd keep this one close for awhile, but Brees will do enough to get the Saints over the hump in an unusually low-scoring performance.
Prediction: San Fran 'D' stifles New Orleans 'O', but Brees gets last laugh. Saints win 27-19.
AFC: #4 Denver Broncos (9-8) @ #1 New England Patriots (13-3)
Last Sunday in Denver, Tim Tebow and the Broncos shocked the world with their 29-23 overtime victory over the heavily favored Steelers. This week, the Broncos are underdogs yet again as they head to Foxboro. Does Tebowmania have enough juice left to get past the dynastic Patriots?
Tom Brady has been great all year but has shown signs of weakness now and again. Yet, whenever he gets into an early struggle he somehow finds a way to bring his team back from the dead as he did against Miami and Buffalo in weeks 16 and 17, respectively. Obviously, Tebow is no stranger to come-from-behind wins either. If Tim plays anywhere near the level he did last week, the Patriot defense could be in for a long night.
The ground attack in New England has been shaky for quite some time. Typically, Benjarvus Green-Ellis is the #1 guy, but the Pats have used Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley in this role as well. In Denver, McGahee is the go-to man and of course, Tebow gets his fair share of rushing yards as well.
Aerially, the Pats have a big advantage with the speed Wes Welker and the machine known as Rob Gronkowski. As Denver showed us in week 15, they have a hard time stopping the tight end. They held Gronk to low totals, but in that game New England's other tight end Aaron Hernandez went off with 9 catches for 129 yards and a score. Demaryius Thomas, again, is really the only threat for the Broncos. He had the dazzling 80-yard reception to end Pittsburgh's season, but can he do it again in New England?
What this game comes down to is honestly which quarterback wants to win more. Brady knows this is a huge game in keeping up his legacy. Obviously, nothing is going to tarnish what he has already accomplished in his time in New England, but speculation that the dynasty may not be as strong as it once was has been a driving force for Brady all year. On the other side, no one can deny that Tim Tebow is a winner. If the Broncos get after the passer, Denver is headed to the AFC title game. However, this is Tom Brady, at home, in the playoffs, in prime time. I think this will be closer than last time, but I can't logically pick against New England in this scenario. The magic carpet ride will end tonight.
Prediction: Brady Shines as Pats End Denver's Magical Run, top Broncos 27-20.
AFC: #3 Houston Texans (11-6) @ #2 Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
So far, the pieces have fallen into place beautifully for the Baltimore Ravens. First, the edged out Pittsburgh in the sweepstakes to get a first round bye. Then, last Sunday, they both of their foes in the AFC North fall, and more importantly, they watched the Steelers fall, a team that has ousted them in the playoffs on numerous occasions in the past decade. The Texans have flown under the radar al year long, battling injury after injury, and have somehow made it this far with a third string quarterback and a very strong defense.
The quarterback situation is actually a bit of a toss-up. Sure, Flacco has the experience, but he has also struggled in the post-season (ala Matt Ryan) and needs to be on his game if the Ravens are to win. Rookie T.J. Yates has been fantastic since taking over the starting job for Houston in week 13. He has managed the game well and has relied on the run to keep the offense moving.
I will also say that the running game is a fairly tough one to call, as the Texans have been phenomenal on the ground all year long, but Ray Rice is a dangerous weapon both on the ground and through the air. If the Texans stop Ray Rice, this game is a foregone conclusion. If not, Houston might have a big problem.
Through the air, the Texans have the biggest weapon in Andre Johnson, while Baltimore will rely on Anquan Boldin and sleeper Torrey Smith, as well as Ray Rice out of the backfield. Boldin went nuts against Houston earlier this year, catching eight passes for 132 yards. Smith has three for 84 yards in that contest. Johnson, who has battled injuries all year, was not in that game.
Once again, these two teams mirror each other as it pertains to defense. The Texans are ranked #1 overall in the NFL in total defense, but did not do a great job of shutting Baltimore down last time out. The Raven defense has been their strong point for a dozen years now, and is it just me or is Ray Lewis extremely focused and finally ready to win a second title?
When push comes to shove, I think the experience and the home crowd will be enough to propel the Ravens back into the AFC title game, where they will look to finally get over the hump. The Texans' defense will play strong, but the Ravens will be stronger. This should look about the same as it did in week 6.
Prediction: Rice shreds Texans for 130 total and 2 scores, Ravens soar 30-17
NFC: #4 New York Giants (10-7) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (15-1)
New York and Green Bay will play the third and final rematch of the weekend. If I pick right, the winners of the first two will earn their second win over their respective opponent this year. Will the Pack make it three for three? The Giants have been on a tear as of late, disposing of the Jets and Cowboys at the end of the year before embarrassing Atlanta last weekend in the Meadowlands. No words need to be said about how dominant the Pack have been this year: their 15-1 (8-0 at home) record speaks for itself.
Aaron Rodgers has played out of his mind this year, throwing for over 4,600 yards and 45 touchdowns, while only being intercepted six times. Eli, on the other hand, has probably just had his best season of his career. The younger Manning brother fell just short of 5,000 yards passing and found the end zone 29 times. He was picked off sixteen times, however, good for one per game. If Eli limits the turnovers, he could be in for a big day.
I'll take the G-men as it pertains to the ground attack, as Jacobs and Bradshaw provide for a nice one-two punch. Ryan Grant is a decent back, and James Starks could help out, but the Giants' ground game is far more intimidating.
Provided Greg Jennings is back and is as healthy as he says he is, I like the Packers' passing attack a tad more than the Giants'. True, Victor Cruz and Hakim Nicks have been fantastic and Jake Ballard is a force to be reckoned with. However, there are far more weapons on Green Bay. Rodgers has a nice choice between Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and the tight end Jermichael Finley. The Giants might have a hard time stopping all of these guys at the same time.
The biggest key to the Giants' success is being able to run the football. If Jacobs and Bradshaw can run hard and keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers, New York is going to win this game. If the Pack dominate the time of possession, however, I find it almost impossible for the Giants to come away victorious in this one.
One more key factor going into this game is the fact that Aaron Rodgers, while he has been great all year, has been sacked a whopping 36 times, or three times a game. That is where Jason Pierre Paul comes into play. If JPP gets after Rodgers and creates havoc in the backfield, the Pack will struggle mightily. I also have to wonder how in-tune the Green Bay offense, in particular Aaron Rodgers, is going to be after the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son Michael. I hate to use this tragedy as a potential reason for a team's performance, but it has got to be tough to focus in Green Bay right now with this going on.
In 2008, the Giants went into Lambeau and stunned the Packers en route to a Super Bowl championship. I think Eli is going to come into this game and play great, and the ground game will be extremely effective. I also expect Rodgers to play well, but for the New York defense to get after him early and often and create confusion for the Packer offense. Last week, Denver was my 'shocker of the week'. Chalk the G-Men up as my upset special this weekend.
Prediction: Giants' rushing, defense enough to stun grieving Pack. New York wins 27-21.
There you have it, my four picks for the divisional round. I'll take three favorites in New Orleans, New England and Baltimore, and as my upset I like the New York Giants (apparently I like 'New' teams this weekend). Enjoy the games!!
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