Saturday, January 5, 2013

2012 Wildcard Weekend Predictions


   


     Welcome back, sportz freaks, to another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! As is tradition, I take a year off and then come back just in time to make my predictions for the NFL playoffs. Now if only I could get someone to pay me to do this... This is my absolute favorite time of the sports year (with NHL playoffs and March Madness close behind). Nothing quite like the NFL playoffs to get you pumped up for the weekend. I am particularly excited this year, as all twelve teams in the postseason have earned at least ten wins, making this the most legitimate playoff bracket we've seen in quite some time. The slate for these next two days has three very intriguing matchups, and one contest which I will hope to remain awake during. If your team is still in the hunt as of right now, kudos and good luck to you. If you're like me (again) and have no personal interest in the outcomes of the games, then sit back and enjoy! And now, sportz freaks, my predictions for the 2012 NFL Wildcard playoffs!




AFC: #6 Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ #3 Houston Texans (12-4)

     If this matchup looks familiar to you, that's because the same exact game (seeding, included) took place just last year. And, if you're uninterested in this first game, then honestly I can't say that I blame you. Now , this is not to say that we don't have a pair of pretty good football teams colliding, because we do. In fact, both teams are improved from the squads we saw in last year's showdown. 
     However, this game features a Houston team which is just in a terrible rut right now, and currently provide me with no real reason to consider them as anything more than one and done this year. A few weeks back, the Texans looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They were 11-1 and in full control of the AFC. Flash forward to now, and it's Denver and New England who have off, and the Texans who are forced to play the extra game. Granted, Houston has had to face a desperate Minnesota and surging Indianapolis team in the last two weeks, but this is a team that has shown us all year that it cannot win the big game (ask Green Bay, New England). 
     On the other side, the Bengals are playing quite well. They've won their last three in a row and seven out of their last eight. What has to be even more intimidating for the Texans is the fact that Cincy is 6-2 on the road this year, and haven't lost a road game since October 14th. The Bengals have impressed me mightily in the past few weeks, going into hostile Pittsburgh in a huge game for both squads, and edging out the win. They also took care of business at home against the division champs Baltimore to close out the season at 10-6 last weekend. This is a young team that's hungry and also looking for revenge for last year's early exit in Houston. 
     What I think this game is going to come down to is which team makes less mistakes. Houston started off the year strong defensively, but has been pushed around as of late. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been solid defensively all year and is playing very well over the last month. However, I think both defenses will come to play, that's not the issue. Where I'm a bit concerned is the play of Bengals' quarterback Andy Dalton. He's young and only in his second year, and has shown much improvement. There is still a lot of work that needs to be done in order to refine his game, however. He makes a lot of mistakes, as was evidenced in the Pittsburgh game a few weeks back, and needed his defense to bail him out. The Texans have the weapons defensively to force mistakes, and Dalton is going to have to be perfect to get by, as the Texans do not turn the ball over very much. I think at home with a raucous crowd, Houston will have just enough to edge the Bengals for the second year in a row, but don't expect much more from this team after that. 

Prediction: Foster scores twice, defense stands tall as Texans edge Bengals 20-17. 



NFC: #6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ #3 Green Bay Packers (11-5)

     Our next contest features a pair of teams who met just one week ago in Minnesota, a game in which the Vikings fought their way into the postseason. Now they get a second shot at their arch rivals, and this time can knock the Pack right out of it. This time around, however, it'll  be on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 7-1 and have not lost since week 1 to the 49ers. 
     Minnesota is definitely a surprise this year, coming off a dreadful 3-13 performance just a season ago, winning its last four in a row to go to 10-6, just enough to enter the playoffs as the 6th seed in the NFC. The majority of that success can be attributed to the surreal return to form of running back Adrian Peterson. The man tore his ACL at the end of last year and has not only come back and played well, he seems to be even more unstoppable than ever before. Last week, AP marched over 200 yards and fell just shy of breaking Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record en route to helping the Vikes squeak by Aaron Rodgers and company. If he continues on the path he's been on all year when the Vikings head to Green Bay, the Packers could be in a world of trouble. 
     Before last week's loss, the Packers had won four in a row as well, and nine of its previous ten. The only loss in that span came in week 12 when Green Bay was routed by the (former) Super Bowl Champion New  York Giants, 38-10. Since then, Green Bay has seemingly been on a mission and their impressive run was thwarted only by a  Minnesota team fighting for its postseason life. Before that, the Pack thumped Tennessee 55-7 in a highly impressive performance on both sides of the ball. The Pack are healthy now, and that could mean bad things for Minnesota. 
     I think Mike McCarthy is going to be focused solely on stopping Peterson, and with Clay Matthews back in full form, he just might be able to do that. If the Pack can contain AP, it doesn't bode well for the Vikings, as they don't have much in the way of a play-maker outside of Peterson. They lost their top guy in that department (Percy Harvin) to a season-ending injury. If they can't run the ball, the pressure shifts to second-year QB Christian Ponder, who has played well as of late, but looked awful in week 13 at Lambeau, where he threw for only 119 yards and two picks in a 23-14 loss to Green Bay. Add that to a healthy Packers' squad who is hungry and looking for a showdown in San Fran, and I think Green Bay has more than enough motivation to avenge last week's loss and move on to the divisional round. 

Prediction: Rodgers runs wild, tosses 3 TD's as Packers down Vikings 31-14. 





AFC: #5 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ #4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

     Story-line wise, this game is absolutely jam-packed. Where do I begin? Well, let's start by pointing out the most obvious, which is that Ravens' linebacker Ray Lewis could be playing in his last NFL game, as he announced the other day that he will be retiring once the season ends. That will cap a remarkable seventeen year career in which Lewis earned both a Lombardi trophy, as well as a SuperBowl MVP. He is playing on Sunday for the first time since getting hurt in week 6 against Dallas, and is looking to end his run in the NFL with another championship. 
     The Colts have quite a story on their hands, as well. Not even mentioning that this team won just two games last season and have scorched that en route to an 11-5 record this year (with a rookie Quarterback), the Colts have done so in a transitional year after releasing Peyton Manning, and an emotional one after head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with Leukemia back in October. Pagano is well on his way to recovery, and will be back on the sidelines in Baltimore this weekend. 
     Then, there's always my favorite aspect of a Colts-Ravens game, which is the old Colts-picking-up-their-stuff-and-moving-down-to-Indianapolis story. For those of you unfamiliar with this angle, the Colts, a team formerly of the Baltimore area, infamously left the city in 1972 and relocated the franchise to Indianapolis. It wasn't until 1997 when the Ravens were formed that Baltimore was able to regain a team. The city has been bitter about this incident ever since, and it always adds fuel to the fire when these two clubs meet. 
     All of the drama aside, we have a white-hot Indianapolis Colts team who has won five of its last six and nine of its last eleven games. They've been led by an outstanding rookie campaign from Quarterback Andrew Luck of Stanford and perhaps a little bit of regular "luck" as well. Fate seems to be on their side right now, and it's extremely tough to argue against the Colts at this point. 
     The Ravens, on the other hand, have, for lack of a better term, stumbled into the playoffs. They earned a post-season berth weeks ago, but have lost four of their last five since. To their credit, those contests came against three teams currently in the playoffs (Cincy, Washington and Denver), as well as the Giants and Steelers, who are obviously no pushovers. That being said, Baltimore has looked pretty awful in the past month, and has got to get something going if they hope to give Ray Lewis one more shot at glory. 
     Sunday features three rookie quaarterbacks, one of which definitely has to win. The other is Andrew Luck. Can he make it two for two on the day? I think that the Ravens D will come out to play at home, but they need to effectively use Ray Rice in their offensive scheme. When used properly, the Ravens are unstoppable. Unfortunately, that has not been the case this season and the Ravens have struggled as a result. I would love to see Andrew luck and the Colts take this one and head to Denver where Manning can take a shot at his former club. There is one factor here that I believe will prevent that from happening however, and that is in the defense. We know the Ravens' D is good, no need to go on about them. The Colts, however, are dreadful on the defensive side of the ball. To date, they have given up an average of 24 points a game, and when the Ravens are clicking they can surely boast that type of offensive performance. I'm not sure that a rookie, as good as he is, can go into a hostile Baltimore environment against an emotional Ravens squad and allow his team to score enough points to match that. I think this'll be a dandy, but in the end I believe experience will win out and the Ravens will live to see another day. 

Prediction: Twice as Rice: Ray Rice hits pay-dirt twice, Defense stout as Ravens oust Colts 27-17. 


NFC: #5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ #4 Washington Redskins (10-6)

     Finally, we come to the second NFC Wildcard game between the Seahawks and the Redskins. This is undoubtedly the most difficult game, personally, to predict. We have two unbelievably hot teams going head-to-head.
    The host Redskins were 3-6 on November 4th, having just come off an ugly 21-13 loss to Carolina. Washington went on their bye afterward, and haven't looked back since. They have gone 7-0 since the bye en route to a 10-6 record and an East division championship after a thrilling victory over the Cowboys last Sunday Night. 
     The Seahawks have been just as, if not more impressive over the last two months, as they have won their last five, and seven out of eight, including an absolute drubbing of the 49ers a few weeks ago. Over that span, the Seahawks have been remarkable on defense, allowing just under 14 points a game. But these birds are fierce on both sides, as they have lit up opposing defenses for an average of 34 points a game over their past eight. If not for a Rams-Niners tie, the Seahawks would be division champs and taking the week off. Instead, they head to Washington with a possible rubber match with San Fran looming, should Minnesota also win. 
     What makes this game incredibly difficult to predict is the fact that, at least offensively, these teams are remarkably similar. Each has a rookie quarterback who can not only throw, but are dangerous on the ground as well. Each has a powerful featured running back who can more than carry their fair share of the load in the ground game. Each has a deep threat play-making receiver who can shift the momentum of the game at any point. This is sure to be one heck of a game. 
      At first glance, the Seahawks are the easy choice. They have a better record and have looked down right unstoppable in the last five weeks. What scares me about this club, however, is their never-ending struggle to play well on the road. This season, Seattle went an abysmal 3-5 away from CenturyLink Field, and those three wins came against Carolina, Chicago and Buffalo, none of whom made the post-season. 
     Conversely, the Redskins are just 5-3 at home this season, and aside from a win over Baltimore in week 14, have not played a playoff team since October 14th. They have been on quite a run, but the legitimacy of their victories has to be questioned a bit. And although the Skins can definitely put up points (they're averaging 30 ppg during the 7-game win streak), their defense has not stopped much, as they have given up an average of 20 points a game. Add that to the fact that rookie QB Russell Wilson has been virtually matchup-proof and this makes for a very ugly scenario for the East Division champs. I think the 4:30 start also works in Seattle's favor, as it takes away some of the difficulty of playing on the east coast, and as a result I think the Hawks take this one and head to Atlanta next weekend. 

Prediction: Solid day from RGIII not enough to stop surging Seahawks. Seattle wins 34-20. 


Well, that does it for this week's edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk. Enjoy the games, everyone!


      


Sunday, February 5, 2012

Super Sunday Predictions: Giants-Pats Round II



Welcome back, sportz freaks to a super edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk. It seems like forever ago we watched New England survive against Baltimore and the Giants capitalize on a key turnover to down the 49ers. But finally, after two long weeks (with a horrendous Pro Bowl tossed in the middle), we have arrived at the greatest day in the sports calendar: Super Bowl Sunday. The above image informs us that this year's showdown will be taking place between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants...again. While some are thrilled about the rematch, others complain that they want new teams to be in. Regardless of which stance you take on the issue, the fact is that the Pats and the G Men are squaring off for the seocnd time in four years. Last time out it was the Giants who stunned the world when they knocked off previously 18-0 New England, giving the younger Manning brother his first championship. This year, the Giants seem even stronger than that '07 team, and Eli has been fantastic. On the other side, Tom Brady has been his usual great self and seems focused and determined. You know that the Pats will be out for a huge dose of revenge stew once kickoff takes place. Will we see a repeat of Super Bowl XLII, or will New England notch its fourth championship in the last decade? I'm here to give you my take on who will walk away as Super Bowl Champions on Sunday night. Let's get started!


SUPER BOWL XLVI: 6:30PM EST @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN


NFC #4 New York Giants (12-7) vs. AFC #1 New England Patriots (15-3)


You know the drill, I'm going to break this thing down position by position and as always, we start under center with the quarterbacks. There is no doubt that we are watching one of the all-time greats whenever we see Tom Brady step out onto the field. The guy just has it and you can almost always trust him to be great when you need him. He's certainly been great for New England this year, and seems to have sort of a chip on his shoulder as he enters this huge rematch. On the flip side, Eli Manning, cast into the shadow of elder brother Peyton early in his career, suddenly has a chance to pass big bro in terms of titles. This is perhaps Eli's greatest season to date, and he looks even better than he did four years ago with the championship club. He's led the G-Men valiantly through three tough games thus far and is ready for one more upset of the Pats. I'm giving this one a draw, as both Manning and Brady are extremely reliable, and both can be trusted to lead a game-winning drive at game's end if needed.


The rushing debate isn't really much of one at all, as the Giants wil send out a two-headed machine in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. These two have been spectacular thus far in the post-season and could prove to be a major problem for a less-than-stellar New England defense. The Pats will send out Benjarvus Green-Ellis, who has had himself a decent playoffs thus far, but the question that always arises is just how many touches will he get? If he is fed the ball early, he has the potential to have a productive outing. However, the possibility always exists that Brady airs it out forty times and he sees about ten touches. I'll give New York the nod here on this one.


As far as wide receivers go, the Giants bring a seemingly unstoppable force in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, as well as an occasional TD toss to Mario Manningham. They also have a hefty tight end in Jake Ballard who could create a match up nightmare in the New England secondary. The Pats will trot out this year's top receiver in Wes Welker, as well as the leading scorer among tight ends in NFL history, Rob Gronkowski. 'Gronk' has been phenomenal all season, but he's a bit banged up and may not be at 100%. Nevertheless, the big man will be on the field for the big game, and if the O-line protects Brady he could be a huge threat. It's a close one here, but combine Welker and Gronkowski with Aaron Hernandez and former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch, and the Pats' weapons look just a bit more appealing.


Defensively, this just seems to be no contest. The Giants' defensive unit has been a force to be reckoned with over the past month and a half, and will be looking to get after Brady early and often. Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umeniyora present a tremendous challenge for the Pats' O-line and if Brady is not protected, this will be a long night. The New England defense has been ridiculed all season, although they have looked a tad bit better as of late. The key for them will be covering the Giants' dynamic receivers, as well as being able to stop the run. Keeping Jacobs and Bradshaw's numbers down will be essential if a New England victory is to occur. This match up undoubtedly belongs to the Giants, however.


The two coaches are equal in my opinion here, with Belichick just a notch ahead of Coughlin. However, the Giants' coach has that one deciding victory over his foe this Sunday already this season, as well as that lingering defeat suffered by New England four years ago. Look for both these coaches to play some mind games early in this one.


What this all comes down to is a battle of who wants it more. The G-men look like a team of destiny once again, scratching and clawing their ways from 7-7 to 9-7 and then three impressive playoff victories, including road wins over the #1 and #2 seeds in the NFC, respectively. The Pats have seemingly cruised all season, and easily ousted the #4 seeded Broncos before squeaking out a win over Baltimore two weeks ago. New England was able to score in that game against a tough defensive unit, and could produce similar numbers on Sunday. The Giants (and their fans) are convinced that this is Deja-Blue for New York and that we will see a repeat of four years ago. Tom Brady and company seem to have different plans, and are undoubtedly tired of hearing that they cannot beat the G-men. I'm not sure this game will live up to the hype created by its 2007 counterpart, but it should be a dandy nonetheless. When push comes to shove, I think Tom Brady will prove once and for all that he is the greatest quarterback of this era and get the Giant monkey off his back. I'll take New England in a revenge game as the G-men had four years ago.


Prediction: Brady finally shakes Eli, Giants. Pats win Super Bowl XLVI 27-21.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Playoff Predictions: Championship Weekend 2012


Welcome back, sportz freaks to another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! Wellp, we're down to four. In the last two weekends I have gone 3-1 in my picks for a respectable 6-2 record. With three games to go, the pressure is on now, and it is really on the football clubs from New York, New England, San Francisco and Baltimore. This weekend's match ups are intriguing, but perhaps even more enticing are the potential clashes we could see come Super Sunday. Each potential game that could take place in Indianapolis carries with it some special meaning.
The least exciting of all these would come as a result of a San Francisco-New England Super Bowl, but the story is still there. Some may remember the early years of what has turned out to be a stellar career for Tom Brady. It was in this stage of his career that many sports analysts began linking Brady to former 49er great Joe Montana. How fitting would it be for Tom Brady to net his fourth Super Bowl championship against such a legendary franchise, and one whose old quarterback he had once been compared to?
The other team San Francisco would face on February 5th should they win this Sunday would be the Baltimore Ravens. There isn't really all that much history between these two franchises, but there certainly is plenty to go around for the two head coaches. Should the 49ers and Ravens face off on football's greatest stage, we will witness history as two head-coach brothers would meet for the first time in Super Bowl history. Save for the pure heart ache that will be felt by these two young men's parents, the brotherly rivalry would make for one hell of a football game.
Baltimore could also see the New York Giants in the championship, a sight that would almost certainly bring back horrid memories to all followers of "Big Blue". For those who may not remember (or those in New York who choose not to), the Ravens anihilated the G-men way back in Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa, 34-7. Ray Lewis was the MVP of that game, and the tank still lurks in the defensive backfield in Baltimore. Surely, Eli Manning would fair a whole hell of a lot better than Kerry Collins, and the rematch from a game that took place more than eleven years ago would (hopefully) have better results, as well.
As you may know, however, a New York win this Sunday earns the Giants a Super Bowl rematch regardless of the AFC representative. Their other potential opponent, the Patriots, certainly recall Super Bowl XLII, where Eli and the heavy underdog Giants stunned the football universe, beating the previously unbeaten Pats 17-14 in Glendale, AZ. A New York-New England rematch in the Super Bowl is perhaps the most enticing of all the potential match ups, as it not only brings back vivid memories of 2008, but also serves to further instill the natural hatred that exists between these two localities.
I think it's safe to say that no matter which set of teams ends up heading to Lucas Oil Stadium, we are going to witness a fantastic championship, and in some cases, maybe even better. But even though there are four possible games that could take place in early February, only one will inhabit our television screens. So which will it be? Will the Pats continue their dynasty and take their fifth crack at Lombardi's trophy in the past ten years, or will Ray Lewis fulfill his dream of serving Brady the turf on a silver platter? Will Alex Smith's improbable run continue onto Super Sunday, or will Eli and the Giant's experience be too much to handle? We won't know until late Sunday night, but we can certainly speculate. That is what I plan to do, so fasten your seat belts. It's prediction time.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 3:00PM Sunday- Gilette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
#2 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) @ #1 New England Patriots (14-3)

Well, this should be fun. Although New England and Baltimore aren't exactly rivals, there certainly is no love lost between these two tough teams. Just two years ago, the Ravens went into Foxboro and hammered the heavy favorite Patriots with a ground and pound attack and solid defense. You can be sure that Tom Brady and company have vivid memories of that ugly performance, and will look to avenge the loss on Sunday.
Of course, there is some animosity on the side of the Ravens, too. Ray Lewis has made it fairly obvious that he despises Brady, or at least the rules which have protected the quarterback for the past few seasons. Lewis is an old-school defensive back and wants nothing more than to level anyone and everyone at any chance he is given. When certain regulations don't allow him to do so, it creates a frustrating scenario for the veteran linebacker. You'd better believe he will be looking to get after Brady early and often.
A comparison of the quarterbacks will show that Brady is far and away the more elite passer in this contest. There is just no question about it. The guy has three Super Bowl championships and two Super Bowl MVPs to his credit, and is one win away from tying the great Joe Montana for most playoff victories all-time. Brady has been fantastic this season, throwing for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns, while throwing just twelve interceptions. Add the fact that Brady has perhaps his best arsenal of weapons that he has ever had, and he is going to be extremely tough to stop.
Joe Flacco has come under some scrutiny as of late, with some (including teammate Ed Reed) claiming that Flacco doesn't have what it takes to win big games. While that may or may not be true, Flacco has been great as the leading passer for the Ravens, and has been in the post-season in all five of his years as the starter. Flacco doesn't exactly tear it up through the air, but his game-managing skills have proven to be very effective for Baltimore. If he protects the ball and the ground game gets going, the Ravens have a great shot at the upset.
Benjarvus Green-Ellis has been a decent back for the Pats, but the fact is that New England just does not like to run the ball. It's a shame, because when they get the rushing attack going, they can be fairly effective with it. Kevin Faulk will also be active for New England in this game, and the last time that was the case he was extremely effective. Look for Brady to be the pass-happy guy he usually is, but when it's on the ground Green-Ellis is the go-to man.
Ray Rice is perhaps the most prolific running back in the NFL, as he is extremely elusive both on the ground as well as through the air. When these two clubs met in 2010, the Pats had a tremendously difficult time stopping Rice and fell behind early as a result. Rice will undoubtedly be the main weapon for the Ravens on Sunday, as establishing a running game and keeping Tom Brady off the field will be key for a Baltimore victory.
The battle of receivers isn't even close in this one. The Ravens will utilize wideout Anquan Boldin as well as an occasional deep ball to Torrey Smith and passes out of the backfield to Rice. The Pats will bring to the table the most deadly combination of tight ends that this league has ever witnessed in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron hernandez. The Ravens will surely double team the massive Gronkowski, which will frustratingly leave Hernandez in single coverage. On top of these two, Brady's other go-to guy is Wes Welker, who has had a phenomenal season, catching 122 passes for 1,569 yards and nine scores. They will also trot out veteran Deion Branch, who has a Super Bowl MVP of his own. The bottom line is that New England has an unbelievable set of skilled receivers that can do a ton of damage is Brady is given any time to throw.
Defensively, Baltimore has always had a strong unit. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will do their best to create confusion for Tom Brady, and with any luck they will do so enough to get their team the win. The Pats' defense, on the other hand, has been ridiculed all season as being weak, but have been solid in recent weeks. Stopping Ray Rice will be the biggest issue they will have, but doing so will all but ensure a New England victory. What this comes down to is whichever offensive line protects their guy the best.
I talked a couple of weeks ago about how the chips were falling perfectly for the Ravens. The Steelers were out, Baltimore earned a home game, and things were looking bright for the purple birds. Heading to New England is no easy task, especially in the post-season, but one more win and the Ravens will be headed to Indianapolis, a trip that a team from Baltimore has certainly made before..could it be fate?
The one statistic that stands out to me here is that the Pats are 7-1 at home this season, while all three of the Ravens' losses came on the road. Baltimore is a great team at home, but if you take them out of the inner harbor, they tend to struggle. I think they will bring a strong effort but the trend of the home team winning in the AFC will continue.

Prediction: Brady tosses a pair of TD's as Pats outlast stingy Ravens, New England wins 27-21.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP:6:30PM Sunday-Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
#4 New York Giants (11-7) @ #2 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

San Francisco and New York are no strangers when it comes to meeting in big games. Sunday's match up will be another installment of a great rivalry, and this one should be great as well. The 49ers, basement dwellers in the NFC West for the past several years, have had an unbelievable season, winning the division and earning a first round bye, as well as ousting the favorite New Orleans Saints one week ago. They have surprised many thus far, myself included, and suddenly have found themselves a win away from football's biggest stage. A solid defense and a lack of turnovers from quarterback Alex Smith have been the driving force behind San Fran's success. Will they be able to stand up and stop the high-powered Giant offensive attack, and can Smith stay mistake-free against a much stronger defense than he faced a week ago?
The Giants come into this game on a hot streak of their own, having won four in a row, all of which were rather emphatic victories. They knocked off two rivals in the Jets and Cowboys to finish the season, and then walloped the Falcons 24-2 before stunning the defending champion Packers last weekend. Before this recent surge, the Giants seemed rather inconsistent, but have found their stride and are riding a wave of success right now lead by stellar play from Eli Manning and a sound defensive effort. If the G-men can get the ground game going against this tough defense, they'll have a great shot. If they don't run well, it will not be pretty in a rainy San Francisco.
Breaking this down position by position, the Giants have a slight edge as Eli Manning has had perhaps his greatest season thus far in what has become an outstanding career. If someone told me a five years ago that Eli would have a chance to pass his older brother in Super Bowl wins, I'd have said they were nuts. Yet here he is, two wins away from his second Lombardi Trophy, which would be one more than the elder Manning brother. The key for the Giants will be protecting Manning from a stingy 49er defensive front and giving him time to pass.
Alex Smith has had quite the opposite career than his foe this Sunday, as he has often been criticized for his performance. The mere fact that he was named starter this season drew quick ire from the San Fran faithful, as many were unsure he could lead them to the playoffs, let alone the NFC title game. Smith not only did that, but he has led his squad to fourteen wins in seventeen games and needs just one more to get his team to the big game. Smith hasn't exactly been phenomenal, and has been labeled as a 'game manager', but he is getting the job done none the less and those criticisms will be erased if he can get San Francisco two more wins.
The Giants bring a scary two-headed rushing attack with the speedy Ahmad Bradshaw and the beastly Brandon Jacobs. The 49ers have stuffed the run with unbelievable success this season, and gave up just one rushing TD in their sixteen regular season games. Neither back has topped 100 yards rushing in the post-season thus far, and that trend will likely continue on Sunday as the 49ers are merciless against the run.
Frank Gore will be the key back to watch for San Francisco. Gore ran for 92 yards on only thirteen carries last week against the Saints in a game which Alex Smith needed to pass to keep the 'Niners alive. As running backs go, I trust Gore to get a heavier workload and to be more productive than either Jacobs or Bradshaw. The Giants' defense is no joke, but they can be run on.
The Giant receivers are extremely difficult to stop, as Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been lighting it up in recent weeks. In the post-season thus far, Nicks has caught a whopping thirteen balls for 280 yards and four touchdowns. He has been downright untouchable, and if Manning gets time he could burn the San Francisco secondary. Cruz hasn't been in the stat books quite as much, as he has seven catches for just over 100 yards in two post-season games, but 1,500 regular season yards don;t just disappear, so the 49ers will have to key in on both Nicks as well as Cruz.
Last week I belittled the combined efforts of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis as it pertains to a top group of receivers, and they soundly came out and totaled eleven catches, 205 yards and three touchdowns. Me and my big mouth. Crabtree was good in the win, but Davis was a man on a mission. He caught two huge passes on the final drive of the game, including a game-winning fourteen yard strike from Alex Smith with just nine ticks remaining. There is no question that Vernon Davis will be the man to watch for the Giants, and it will be a long night if they can't keep him contained.
These two teams met in mid-November, with San Francisco edging the G-men 27-20. The Giants led all statistical categories in that game with the exception of one: turnovers. That seems to be the key word when you play the 49ers. Just ask the Saints. The Giants gave it up twice in that game and only forced one turnover on the other side of the ball and failed as a result. The 'Niners are a beatable team if you can limit the turnovers, but that has been the problem for so many teams that have fallen to San Fran this year. It could be even tougher for the Giants to protect the ball in the messy condition that awaits them in Candlestick Park.
This will certainly be a classic, gridiron battle between two of the NFL's most prestigious franchises, and defense will be the key for whichever club comes out on top. I think the 49ers showed a lot of guts last week in their victory over the Saints, but the Giants will bring a much stronger defense into San Fran than New Orleans did. The 'Niners also showed us that even though they can earn tough victories that their defense is certainly beatable, as the Saints earned 472 total yards despite just thirty-seven of them coming on the ground. Eli is capable of airing it out, perhaps not quite as effectively as Drew Brees, but effective nonetheless. I predict a tight, sloppy defensive effort from both sides in this one and the scoreboard will reflect it. It's not technically an upset by the numbers, but I think the Giants could have a hard time rushing the passer in the rainy conditions, and as a result will struggle to force turnovers.

Prediction: San Francisco's magical run continues, 49ers edge Giants in mud bowl 20-19.

Well, I haven't gone perfect in a weekend yet in 2012, so with any luck this will be the one. If so, we will be getting what should be a fantastic match between two of football's greatest dynasties. If not, we should still get a great game regardless of Sunday's outcomes. To the fans of any of the remaining four teams, good luck to you and everyone enjoy the games! I'll be back week to talk a bit about the Pro Bowl and to begin discussing the match up for Super Bowl XLVI. Have a great day, sportz freaks!

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2012


Welcome back, sportz freaks to another edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! This has been a particularly busy week, and as a result I will be unable to give as much of an in-depth analysis as it pertains to my picks. So without further a due, let's get right down to business.

Last week, I went 3-1 with my predictions, getting help from the Saints and Texans, as well as the miraculous finish by the Denver Broncos. The Falcons were the only club to let me down last week, but no one's perfect right? Will any of last week's winners come away victorious for a second straight week?

NFC: #3 New Orleans Saints (14-3) @ #2 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

This is the weekend's first game, and should be a dandy. The Saints and Niners will bring two completely different game plans to the table, as New Orleans likes to air it out and make you keep up, while San Fran sticks to a tough ground game and relies on their defense to shut down the opposition.

The Quarterback comparison is fairly lopsided, as Brees has been phenomenal all season. Don't count out Alex Smith, though, as despite his low yardage totals, he has only turned the ball over five times all season. That's an incredible statistic. The question will be whether or not the San Fran 'D' will be able to shut down Brees for four quarters. Don't count on it.

I'll take San Francisco's ground game, as Frank Gore is a tank and the Saints still do not have a true #1 back. I think Darren Sproles could have a big game as a receiver, however, so look for him to make a statement.

The Saints receiving corps is a bit more intimidating, and I also expect Jimmy Graham to go off today as Brees will look for help under pressure. Michael Crabtree is reliable, and Vernon Davis should be effective but outside these two I don't see much action in the passing attack of the 49ers.

Finally, the 49er defensive unit has been solid against the run all season, but will that be effective against a pass-happy Saints team? The New Orleans defense can be had, but they also have enough play-makers to always make something happen.

I think the 49ers will come out fired up a nd keep this one close for awhile, but Brees will do enough to get the Saints over the hump in an unusually low-scoring performance.

Prediction: San Fran 'D' stifles New Orleans 'O', but Brees gets last laugh. Saints win 27-19.


AFC: #4 Denver Broncos (9-8) @ #1 New England Patriots (13-3)

Last Sunday in Denver, Tim Tebow and the Broncos shocked the world with their 29-23 overtime victory over the heavily favored Steelers. This week, the Broncos are underdogs yet again as they head to Foxboro. Does Tebowmania have enough juice left to get past the dynastic Patriots?

Tom Brady has been great all year but has shown signs of weakness now and again. Yet, whenever he gets into an early struggle he somehow finds a way to bring his team back from the dead as he did against Miami and Buffalo in weeks 16 and 17, respectively. Obviously, Tebow is no stranger to come-from-behind wins either. If Tim plays anywhere near the level he did last week, the Patriot defense could be in for a long night.

The ground attack in New England has been shaky for quite some time. Typically, Benjarvus Green-Ellis is the #1 guy, but the Pats have used Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley in this role as well. In Denver, McGahee is the go-to man and of course, Tebow gets his fair share of rushing yards as well.

Aerially, the Pats have a big advantage with the speed Wes Welker and the machine known as Rob Gronkowski. As Denver showed us in week 15, they have a hard time stopping the tight end. They held Gronk to low totals, but in that game New England's other tight end Aaron Hernandez went off with 9 catches for 129 yards and a score. Demaryius Thomas, again, is really the only threat for the Broncos. He had the dazzling 80-yard reception to end Pittsburgh's season, but can he do it again in New England?

What this game comes down to is honestly which quarterback wants to win more. Brady knows this is a huge game in keeping up his legacy. Obviously, nothing is going to tarnish what he has already accomplished in his time in New England, but speculation that the dynasty may not be as strong as it once was has been a driving force for Brady all year. On the other side, no one can deny that Tim Tebow is a winner. If the Broncos get after the passer, Denver is headed to the AFC title game. However, this is Tom Brady, at home, in the playoffs, in prime time. I think this will be closer than last time, but I can't logically pick against New England in this scenario. The magic carpet ride will end tonight.

Prediction: Brady Shines as Pats End Denver's Magical Run, top Broncos 27-20.


AFC: #3 Houston Texans (11-6) @ #2 Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

So far, the pieces have fallen into place beautifully for the Baltimore Ravens. First, the edged out Pittsburgh in the sweepstakes to get a first round bye. Then, last Sunday, they both of their foes in the AFC North fall, and more importantly, they watched the Steelers fall, a team that has ousted them in the playoffs on numerous occasions in the past decade. The Texans have flown under the radar al year long, battling injury after injury, and have somehow made it this far with a third string quarterback and a very strong defense.

The quarterback situation is actually a bit of a toss-up. Sure, Flacco has the experience, but he has also struggled in the post-season (ala Matt Ryan) and needs to be on his game if the Ravens are to win. Rookie T.J. Yates has been fantastic since taking over the starting job for Houston in week 13. He has managed the game well and has relied on the run to keep the offense moving.

I will also say that the running game is a fairly tough one to call, as the Texans have been phenomenal on the ground all year long, but Ray Rice is a dangerous weapon both on the ground and through the air. If the Texans stop Ray Rice, this game is a foregone conclusion. If not, Houston might have a big problem.

Through the air, the Texans have the biggest weapon in Andre Johnson, while Baltimore will rely on Anquan Boldin and sleeper Torrey Smith, as well as Ray Rice out of the backfield. Boldin went nuts against Houston earlier this year, catching eight passes for 132 yards. Smith has three for 84 yards in that contest. Johnson, who has battled injuries all year, was not in that game.

Once again, these two teams mirror each other as it pertains to defense. The Texans are ranked #1 overall in the NFL in total defense, but did not do a great job of shutting Baltimore down last time out. The Raven defense has been their strong point for a dozen years now, and is it just me or is Ray Lewis extremely focused and finally ready to win a second title?

When push comes to shove, I think the experience and the home crowd will be enough to propel the Ravens back into the AFC title game, where they will look to finally get over the hump. The Texans' defense will play strong, but the Ravens will be stronger. This should look about the same as it did in week 6.

Prediction: Rice shreds Texans for 130 total and 2 scores, Ravens soar 30-17


NFC: #4 New York Giants (10-7) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (15-1)

New York and Green Bay will play the third and final rematch of the weekend. If I pick right, the winners of the first two will earn their second win over their respective opponent this year. Will the Pack make it three for three? The Giants have been on a tear as of late, disposing of the Jets and Cowboys at the end of the year before embarrassing Atlanta last weekend in the Meadowlands. No words need to be said about how dominant the Pack have been this year: their 15-1 (8-0 at home) record speaks for itself.

Aaron Rodgers has played out of his mind this year, throwing for over 4,600 yards and 45 touchdowns, while only being intercepted six times. Eli, on the other hand, has probably just had his best season of his career. The younger Manning brother fell just short of 5,000 yards passing and found the end zone 29 times. He was picked off sixteen times, however, good for one per game. If Eli limits the turnovers, he could be in for a big day.

I'll take the G-men as it pertains to the ground attack, as Jacobs and Bradshaw provide for a nice one-two punch. Ryan Grant is a decent back, and James Starks could help out, but the Giants' ground game is far more intimidating.

Provided Greg Jennings is back and is as healthy as he says he is, I like the Packers' passing attack a tad more than the Giants'. True, Victor Cruz and Hakim Nicks have been fantastic and Jake Ballard is a force to be reckoned with. However, there are far more weapons on Green Bay. Rodgers has a nice choice between Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and the tight end Jermichael Finley. The Giants might have a hard time stopping all of these guys at the same time.

The biggest key to the Giants' success is being able to run the football. If Jacobs and Bradshaw can run hard and keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers, New York is going to win this game. If the Pack dominate the time of possession, however, I find it almost impossible for the Giants to come away victorious in this one.

One more key factor going into this game is the fact that Aaron Rodgers, while he has been great all year, has been sacked a whopping 36 times, or three times a game. That is where Jason Pierre Paul comes into play. If JPP gets after Rodgers and creates havoc in the backfield, the Pack will struggle mightily. I also have to wonder how in-tune the Green Bay offense, in particular Aaron Rodgers, is going to be after the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son Michael. I hate to use this tragedy as a potential reason for a team's performance, but it has got to be tough to focus in Green Bay right now with this going on.

In 2008, the Giants went into Lambeau and stunned the Packers en route to a Super Bowl championship. I think Eli is going to come into this game and play great, and the ground game will be extremely effective. I also expect Rodgers to play well, but for the New York defense to get after him early and often and create confusion for the Packer offense. Last week, Denver was my 'shocker of the week'. Chalk the G-Men up as my upset special this weekend.

Prediction: Giants' rushing, defense enough to stun grieving Pack. New York wins 27-21.


There you have it, my four picks for the divisional round. I'll take three favorites in New Orleans, New England and Baltimore, and as my upset I like the New York Giants (apparently I like 'New' teams this weekend). Enjoy the games!!

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Playoff Predictions are Back! : Wildcard Weekend 2012




Welcome back, sportz freaks! It's been almost a year since I last posted on here, but the NFL playoffs are always a cause for celebration and, of course, sportz talk! It's been one hell of a football season: the Lions are up, the Colts are down, the Texans are in the playoffs (finally), and Tebowmania has officially begun to run wild. My Dolphins are out of the hunt again, but I feel that this team has a ton of potential and with a new coach (and hopefully a new QB), the fins can become contenders once again. Moving on to the post-season, the field of twelve was decided last weekend. Teams like the Giants, Falcons, and Steelers scratched and crawled to earn as high a seed as possible, each coming away with week 17 victories. Then there are teams like the Texans, Broncos and Bengals, each of whom come limping into the second season: the Texans have lost three straight and are on their fourth starting quarterback (if Yates can't go); the Broncos, riding high a month ago, have also lost three in a row, the most miserable coming against the Chiefs in week 17 when they scored just three points in an ugly effort; The Bengals, although not quite as bad off as the aforementioned Houston and Denver clubs, stumbled in their efforts last week against division foe Baltimore, and needed some outside help in order to make the post-season. No matter the circumstance, each of these twelve teams has found a way to continue playing in January, and this Saturday the quest for Lombardi's Trophy begins. Eight of the twelve clubs will kick things off this weekend, while the Pats, Ravens, Packers and yes, the 49ers, sit at home awaiting their next opponent. So enough of the chit chat, let's get down to business, starting with the early game Saturday...


AFC: #6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) @ #3 Houston Texans (10-6)


4:30 PM Saturday is when it all gets started, and it will be the Cincinnati Bengals headed to Houston to take on the AFC South champs, the Houston Texans. Wait...let me read that back. Yup, that's right.. not only did the Bengals and Texans BOTH make it to the playoffs, but one of these two clubs is actually going to advance to the divisional round. Eesh. Now, I don't have a problem with either of these two teams making it this far, as both Houston and Cincy have earned it. Have they both struggled as of late? Yes. But I won't take anything away from them, either. Cincinnati was not even on the post-season blueprint when the season began. The Bengals were supposed to finish .500 at best and miss the playoffs once again. However, rookies have prevailed in helping this franchise become a legitimate contender. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been nothing short of sensational, and wide receiver AJ Green has been outstanding. Add the veteran leadership of running back Cedric Benson and solid play on defense, and the Bengals were able to battle their way into the AFC field of six, despite finishing third in their own division.
Houston, meanwhile, has had more injuries than I care to count. Yet, this beat-up bunch of backups has won their division for the first time (an injured Peyton Manning discussion will not be had here, but feel free to argue on your own :D ) and achieve the #3 seed. Star wideout Andre Johnson, no stranger to injuries, found himself sidelined for the majority of the season, but hopes to be healthy for Saturday's showdown. Last year's leading rusher, Arian Foster, has missed his fair share of games this year as well and backup Ben Tate has filled in nicely when called upon. In addition to that, Mario Williams, the Texans #1 draft pick just five years ago, has been placed on injured reserve and will not be back this season. And all of this comes before we even get into the quarterback fiasco. Matt Schaub, who had been phenomenal for Houston in the past two seasons, was sidelined early in the year and second string Matt Leinart was asked to step in. With a chance to renew his image, Leinart succumbed to the injury bug as well and a rookie out of the University of North Carolina, TJ Yates, was the new hero. Yates was playing well until he, too, got injured in week 17. However, it appears that Houston will not have to resort to such horrifying measures of bringing in Jake Delhomme, and TJ will be back in time for the game this weekend.
So, where does this all leave us? While both these teams have been decent, neither has blown anyone out of the water, and it is difficult to determine who is going to come away from this one. In fact, I've labeled this the toughest game to predict of the four taking place this weekend. It may not be an instant classic, but Cincinnati and Houston battled a few weeks back, a game in which the Texans edged their opposition 20-19. So there may still be hope of a good game. Who wins it is an entirely different story. Breaking this one down position by position, I'd have to give the edge to the Bengals in terms of quarterback play. Yates has been good, but Dalton has stayed healthy and played consistently, two important factors when evaluating any player. The better running game and defensive unit belongs to Houston, however. Foster and Tate are machines, and when one isn't running for 100 yards, the other one is right there accomplishing that feat themselves. Benson has played tough all year, but there's no denying that Houston has one of the scariest rushing attacks, if not the scariest, in the league. Both defenses have played well also, but the Texan 'D' has been far more consistent, and can always be trusted to step up and make a big play when needed. The wide receivers and tight ends are sort of a toss up, as I will take an Andre Johnson over anyone the Bengals can name, healthy or not. However, the Bengals have a bit more luxury when it comes to numbers. By that, I mean they have more choices in terms of who they can throw to. Green is outstanding, but let's not forget about Jerome Simpson who will be on Sports Center's top 10 for the next ten years for his unbelievable acrobatics display a few weeks back, and Jermaine Gresham who is healthy just in time to make a statement. Houston has a dynamic duo in Joel Dreesen and Owen Daniels in the tight end position, however.
Before a decision can be made, let's first take a look at some team stats that may help figure out who has the edge in the early game. The Texans are 5-3 at home this season, while Cincinnati is 5-3 on the road. One thing that stands out in these two teams' schedules is the fact that the Bengals are 0-7 against teams that made the playoffs this season. That's a tough statistic to evaluate, as one might claim that Cincinnati hasn't "beaten anyone", but one could also argue that the Bengals' only losses came to playoff-caliber clubs. The Texans, on the other hand, went 3-2 against teams in the post-season, including a win over Pittsburgh, who the Bengals failed to defeat in two attempts this season.
When it's all said and done, and the dust has settled, I see Houston running it close to 30 times in an effort to tire the Bengals and sooner or later Cincinnati will not be able to keep up with the Foster-Tate combination. This game will be won on good, old-fashioned running and defensive strategies. Yates will just be a placeholder in this scheme and the Texans will survive, be it by the skin of their teeth once again.

Prediction: Houston's 1-2 ground attack enough to down Bengals; Texans win 22-20.


NFC: #6 Detroit Lions (10-6) @ #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)


If the Detroit Lions had any hopes of making it far in the post-season, the might very well have been dashed in week 17 when they lost a shootout to Green Bay, and the Falcons annihilated the Bucs. These two results combined to drop the Lions from their position in the #5 seed down to #6, and boosted Atlanta into their spot. Doesn't seem like too big of a deal until you understand that the 5th seeded team must head to the Meadowlands (not easy to win there, but do-able), while the 6th seed must travel into the unforgiving Super Dome in New Orleans. There, the 2011 NFC South Champion Saints are 8-0 on the year, and are working on an eight game winning streak to end the regular season. Drew Brees has been absolutely unreal in leading his team to a 13-3 record, and breaking Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season along the way. The Saints have looked strong all season, and are poised to earn themselves a rematch with the Packers in the NFC title game, a team they lost to in a shootout in the season opener.
Looking across the way at their opponents, the Lions come in having lost in the final week of the season to division foe Green Bay, but having won three in a row before-hand. The concern, then, comes with the fact that the Lions faced a Packers team who had nothing left to play for, who benched star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and who lit the Detroit defense up for six touchdowns en route to a 45-41 victory. Two losses to the Pack aside, the Lions have had a phenomenal season by Detroit standards, finishing with a 10-6 record and second place in the NFC North division. The team got off to a hot start, winning their first five in a row before losing to the 49ers in week 6. On the whole, it was an up-and-down season for Detroit, but the Lions have to be proud of giving their franchise meaningful football in January for the first time since 1999. A win on Saturday would allow them to take one more crack at Green Bay for a slot in the NFC title game.
Let's break it down now, shall we? At quarterback, there is no denying that Drew Brees is the out and out favorite in terms of play in this position. Matt Stafford, however, is no scrub. Stafford passed for a whopping 5,038 yards this season, and has been a key reason for the Lions' success. I'm giving the slight nod to New Orleans here, but this is a lot closer than it may seem. The running back situation is a tricky one. The Lions have gone through a rotation of backs this year, starting with Jahvid Best, but Best was injured mid-way through the year and in stepped Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams. When neither of those became sufficient replacements, veteran Kevin Smith rose from the dead and put up stellar numbers over the course of five games. Smith appears to be the go-to guy now, but look for Morris and Williams to get some work this weekend as well. New Orleans will be without rookie Mark Ingram, but for arguments sake this isn't much of a disadvantage on their part. Pierre Thomas has been far more productive, and Darren Sproles is downright unstoppable. Thomas will likely get the bulk of the carries, while Sproles plays his role as the receiving back. The combination of these two is nothing short of lethal. The wideout position is another one of intrigue, as the Saints certainly bring a slew of weapons to the table. Marques Colston, after missing part of the season with an injury, is back and is playing very well. In addition to Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and tight end Jimmy Graham have been big role players for the Saints, with Graham being the biggest sensation of all. The lions, on the other hand, will send out the man known as "Megatron", aka Calvin Johnson. This guy ma very well be the best receiver in the NFL today, and he has posted outstanding numbers: 96 receptions for 1,681 yards and a whopping sixteen touchdowns. Johnson has been a monster, and while the Saints defense has been strong, he will almost certainly find pay dirt at least once on Saturday night. Alongside Johnson, the pickings aren't all that great, but Titus Young and Nate Burleson have played fairly well this season, and tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been great as well. The 45 points the Lions gave up to Green Bay's second stringers should be enough to tell you who gets the edge on defense.
This is another tough game to decide, but perhaps one sort of 'intangible' factor that will come largely into play is the discipline on the part of the Lions. Detroit is the second most penalized team in the NFL, and has often shown a lack of maturity on the playing field. This is seen most often when the Lions play Green Bay, but flags were also flying against Detroit when they met the Saints back in week 13. Ndamukong Suh is the highest offender here, as he has been fined and suspended on more than one occasion since entering the league in 2010 out of Nebraska. His antics and somewhat 'dirty' play have gotten the Lions into trouble more than once, but perhaps some of the blame should be shifted toward head coach Jim Schwarz, whose week 6 hand-shake debacle with San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh was laughable at best. If Schwarz does not adjust the egos and attitudes of his club before Saturday, it could be a looong night in New Orleans.
The bottom line here is that this one is setting up nicely to be a shootout. In week 13, the Saints bested Detroit 31-17, with Brees going off for 342 yards and 3 scores. Stafford had an even more impressive 408 yards, much of which came when the Lions were trailing by 17 in the third quarter. I think this game could reflect similar numbers, but the question is whether or not Detroit will be able to keep up with the high-powered New Orleans offense. They couldn't five weeks ago, and I don't really see much changing on Saturday, either. This one will be close early, but Brees and company will pull away in the fourth en route to another double-digit victory, albeit a smaller one.

Prediction: Saints win 9th straight on Brees' 350 and 3, oust Lions 34-24


NFC: #5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ #4 New York Giants (9-7)

Finally, we come to a case of two teams who are coming in feeling great about themselves after the way each performed in week 17. As mentioned earlier, the Atlanta Falcons absolutely smoked Tampa Bay en route to the NFC's 5th seed, and will head to the Metropolitan area on Sunday afternoon. The Giants, masters of the roller coaster season, finished the 2011 regular season with a decisive win over division rival Dallas and won the East by one game. The Falcons are making their third consecutive trip to the post-season after being ousted in each of their first playoff games in 2009 and 2010. Last year's 13-3 campaign and #1 overall seed came to a screeching halt when Atlanta was pounded by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Matt Ryan has been sensational since the bye, however, and Atlanta is looking for its first playoff victory since the 1998-1999 season, a year in which the Falcons reached the championship.
New York has had a much different season compared to that of this Sunday's foe. The G-men, predicted by some to finish dead last in their own division, showed signs of great maturity and talent in some instances, and complete and utter confusion in others. There were games in which Eli Manning was untouchable, and times where it appeared he was back to his old, goofy self. Sometimes the defense came in and made big plays, and other times it was virtually nonexistent. All that matters is that somehow, someway, the New York Giants have won their division and will host a playoff game on the 8th. The Giants are three point favorites at home, and this should be a dandy.
Since their bye in week 8, the Falcons have gone 6-3, but all three losses came against teams in this year's playoff pool. They were narrowly defeated in Houston in week 13, and were beaten on two occasions by the New Orleans Saints, including a 45-16 beat down in week 16. One might argue that Atlanta has any post-season credibility what-so-ever, considering their hot streak consisted of wins over lowly Jacksonville, even lower Indianapolis, Tennessee, Minnesota, Tampa and perhaps their only impressive win over Carolina. The only win over a team who finished above .500 was Tennessee, and the six victories came over teams with a combined record of 29-67. In fact, Atlanta's only win over a playoff team came way back in week 7, when they knocked off Detroit in what would prove to be a huge game in terms of tie-breakers. Nonetheless, the Falcons are 10-6 and are playing very well right now, and may be tough to stop.
The Giants are just 4-4 at home this season, including mind-numbing losses to the Seahawks and Redskins. To their credit, however, the G-men went through perhaps one of the toughest stretches ever assembled when they faced New England, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay and Dallas in weeks 9-14, respectively. Though they only came away with two wins in those six contests, the Giants fought tough to stay alive in the division, capping off hell month with a win at Dallas, and then finishing off Romo and the Cowboys at home in week 17. This magical run to the post-season has been seen before in New York. Could we be seeing another Super Bowl appearance from New York's best?
The battle of quarterbacks here is very interesting, as both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have shown signs of brilliance, and at times have not looked so great either. At his best, the younger Manning brother is close to being one of the best in the game. At his worst, Eli is bottom of the barrel material. So which Eli will we get on Sunday? It's hard to tell, but one thing he's got working for him is his ability to win big games. Eli has been here and done it before, as he led his team to three straight road victories en route to a championship in 2008. The issue, then, comes in determining whether or not Manning can win a playoff game at home. The Giants' last two post-season home games ended in disaster, as they were ousted by the Eagles the year after their title, and shutout by Carolina a few seasons earlier. Winning in the post-season is something Eli is accustomed to, but can he do it in front of the hostile New York crowd?
Matt Ryan is having a great year as well, throwing for over 4,100 yards and 29 TDs, while only accounting for 12 interceptions. His biggest concern is in the turnover category, where he has fumbled the ball five times this season and lost it three. If Ryan can protect the ball, and if the offensive line can protect Ryan, the Falcons should have a ton of success on the Giants' weak secondary. That may not be as easy as it sounds, however, as the Giants' front line is finally healthy for the first time all season, and could wreak havoc in the Atlanta backfield. The key for New York is to constantly apply pressure to Ryan. If they force him to make tough throws, the Giants will be in great shape. If they give him all day, well, you know what happens next, right New Orleans?
The ground game is a tough one to analyze as well. Michael Turner has been a beast for Atlanta as of late, and he finished the year with 1,300 yards rushing alone with 11 scores. Turner has had his fair share of ball-control issues too, however, as he put the ball on the ground three times in 2011 and lost it twice. Look for the Giants' defensive unit to try and take advantage of this early and often. On the other side, the carries have been split almost 50-50 between Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and neither came even close to sniffing the 1,000 yard mark. The two backs did, however, manage to reach the endzone a combined 16 times. The tough running of beast Brandon Jacobs combined with the speed of Ahmad Bradshaw has made the passing game that much smoother.
That leads me to the wide receivers and tight ends. I will take Tony Gonzalez over anyone the Giants have to offer, but the receiving corps is very close. Atlanta sends out last year's pro-bowl receiver Roddy White, as well as rookie sensation Julio Jones. The two have both had great years and if Ryan is given time, could scorch the New York secondary. The Giants, on the other hand, have found an incredible weapon in Victor Cruz, who just about single-handedly put the Giants in the playoffs. In addition to Cruz, look for Hakim Nicks and a combination of Ramses Barden and Mario Manningham to shine as well.
The Giants have combined for an astounding total of 48 sacks on the year, 25 of which have come from the efforts of Osi Umenyiora and the absolute machine, Jason Pierre-Paul, who accounted for 16.5 sacks this year. The Falcons' defense sacked the opposing quarterback sixteen times less, and let's face it, the ones they got to were not of the elite level. The interception totals were almost identical, with the Giants picking it off 20 times and the Falcons 19, two of which went for scores.
All things considered, this game seems to be a pretty even match. The Falcons did a great job of avoiding New Orleans in the first round, but will it pay off? The Giants got in with a big victory over the Cowboys, so can they ride this wave back to post-season glory? I think the biggest factor here is going to be turnovers. In the past nine weeks, Matt Ryan has thrown only four interceptions, two of which came against Houston's 2nd-ranked defense. The offensive line has protected Ryan very well, and I think the Giants will get to him once or twice but no more than that. The biggest concern for me is a lack of consistency from the Giants, particularly at home. Look for the G-Men to start strong and make some noise, but for Matt Ryan to stay composed and limit his mistakes.

Prediction: Ryan, Falcons soar past Giants 27-17


AFC: #5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) @ #4 Denver Broncos (8-8)

Ahh, at long last it's Tebow time. The question now is, will it be Tebow time on Sunday evening? The records say no, but those who believe in the hype known as Tebowmania would argue otherwise. About a month ago, this so-called "Tebowmania" took the NFL by storm as quarterback Tim Tebow led the hapless Denver Broncos to seven wins in eight games. Finally, a savior had been found. Since the Broncos beat the Bears in week 14, however, Denver has been on a major decline. Tebow's stats are at an all-time low, and the Broncos are hobbling into this weekend's match-up having lost three in a row, including two embarrassing defeats at the hands of Buffalo (6-10) and Kansas City (7-9). The Broncos have a 1-3 record against teams that made the playoffs, with their only victory coming in week 2 against Cincinnati. They are also a measely 3-5 in their own building. The team has been extremely tough to read, and it's hard to tell exactly what Tebow and company we will see come Sunday.
On the other side, the Steelers have been the same-old Steelers. They won twelve of sixteen games, and all four losses came to playoff teams, including two against division rival Baltimore. Since their bye in week 11, Pittsburgh has won five out of six, and their defense has been nothing s hoort of phenomenal. In those six contests, the Steelers have given up a total of just 48 points, 20 of which came against the NFC's 2nd seeded 49ers. Despite a slew of injuries and illnesses, the Steelers have managed to remain a strong contender in the AFC, and look poised to make another run at the Super Bowl. In addition to a great record, the defending AFC champs boast one of the toughest schedules of the year, having played seven teams which made the post-season, and going 3-4 in those contests. They are also 5-3 on the road this season.
Yet despite all evidence to the contrary, the Denver Broncos are far more competitive than one might believe. Tebow has led his troops to five come-from-behind victories, and just when you think Denver is down for the count, the Broncos somehow find a way to win. That luster has seemingly worn off in the past month, however. New England had their way with them, and Tebow's heroics weren't even enough to score more than three points against the Chiefs, at home no less. However, thanks to the efforts of the San Diego Chargers, the Broncos backed their way into an AFC West title and the #4 seed in the playoffs. Was it fate, or just plain luck?
One thing working in the Broncos' favor is that Pittsburgh enters this Sunday's game battered and bruised. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has had ankle issues over the past month, starting running back Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year after suffering an MCL tear in week 17, and safety Ryan Clark will not be playing due to illness. Also, starting center Maurkice Pouncey, who has had his own set of ankle problems this year, is questionable to play. Doug Legursky would get the start if Pouncey is unable to go. Broncos' safety Brian Dawkins will also be out, suffering from a neck injury. Will the injuries be enough to prevent Pittsburgh from heading to either Baltimore or New England for the divisional round?
Position-by-position, Roethlisberger has the edge in the majority of categories. He's got the better arm, more experience, and a willingness to win every game he's in. Big beg is also usually a decent runner, but ankle problems will inhibit that this weekend. Tebow has only his determination to win working for him. He's not much of a passer, and his running isn't too shabby, but what it comes down to for Tim Tebow is that he often refuses to lose. Regardless, I don't really see a gun-slinging type of performance, but rather a slow-paced game from both teams as they rely on the run to get the job done.
As mentioned, Rashard Mendenhall is out so it's Isaac Redman who will be getting the bulk of the carries with Mewelde Moore getting some time as well. Redman has filled in nicely when called upon, and has even stolen some carries from Mendenhall when needed (trust me, I had Rashard on my fantasy team). Redman has a stellar 4.4 yards per carry average on the season, and accumulated almost 500 yards and three touchdowns despite just over 100 carries. The Denver rushing attack has been fantastic this year, with Willis McGahee leading the charge. McGahee has almost 1,200 yards on the season and found pay dirt four times. He is also good for a reception or two a game out of the backfield. Tebow is no stranger to the ground game either, having totaled a whopping 660 yards on the ground and scoring six times.
The Pittsburgh receiving corps is fierce, and Roethlisberger certainly has his fair share of targets to choose from. The Steelers had two different receivers top 1,100 yards for the season: Mike Wallace (1,193) and Antonio Brown (1,108). Wallace reached the endzone eight times while Brown scored twice. Wallace will most likely draw Champ Bailey in coverage, and Bailey has still got it. Look for Wallace to be semi-productive but if any Steeler receiver is going to have a decent game it should be Antonio Brown. Denver's aerial attack consists mainly of Demaryius Thomas, with Eric Decker having seemingly fallen off the face of the earth. Decker had a hot start to the season, and finished the year with 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Lately, Tebow has found much more comfort in throwing to Thomas, who finished the 2011 campaign with 551 yards and four scores. The Pittsburgh 'D' has been great against the pass, and especially deep passes, however, so don't expect too much action through the air on either side.
This game shapes up to be somewhat of a defensive battle. The Broncos have not been good at stopping the opposition from scoring, but they have had some success in reaching the quarterback and with Big Ben hobbled, they may find even more. The Steeler defense is self-explanatory, as it has been a mainstay of Pittsburgh football for many years. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley each accounted for 9 sacks this year, although Troy Polamalu has been somewhat quiet, having only gotten one sack and two interceptions on the year. For the Broncos, it will be Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil getting after Roethlisberger. Miller and Dumervil have combined for twenty-one sacks on the year, and could prove problematic for the Steeler offensive line. The O-line in Pittsburgh has had a rough time protecting their two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback, as Roethlisberger has been sacked an astounding forty times this season.
When 4:30 rolls around on Sunday, will it be two-time champion Ben Roethlisberger or two-time college national champion who emerges victorious? I see this one being a very tough, gritty battle, and we may even see some snow. That won't really affect Pittsburgh, who has played plenty of cold-weather games, but it could play to Denver's advantage in the running game. The Steelers are an eight point pick on the road, but I think this is going to be much closer. Denver is going to pressure Roethlisberger for the majority of the game, and if the offensive line can't protect him it's going to be a long night. Call me insane, but I'm serving this one up as my shocker special of the weekend. I think the injuries are finally going to take their toll on the defending AFC champs, and they will be ousted early as a result. Take this to the bank: The Denver Broncos will sack Big Ben 4-6 times and the combined running efforts of Tebow and McGahee will wear out the older Steeler defenders en route to a stunning victory.

Prediction: Defense comes up big as Broncos shock the world. Denver wins, 20-17.


There you have it. Give me Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta, and yes, the Denver Broncos this weekend to advance to the divisional playoffs. For everyone whose team is in, good luck, and to those of you (like myself) whose teams are already on the golf course... enjoy Wild Card Weekend! Join me next weekend as I predict the divisional round games. Catch ya later, sportz freaks!

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Sunday Has Arrvied!


Welcome back, Sportz Freaks to a very special Super Bowl edition of Z Money's Sportz Talk! That's right, it's Super Bowl Sunday and dare I say that this is the biggest Super Bowl match up in quite some time. The Pittsburgh Steelers, winners of an unprecedented 6 Super Bowls, will head down to North Texas to do battle with the winner of the first two Super Bowls, the Green Bay Packers. Both these teams have quite a historical background, but they also have interesting stories in the 2010 season.


The Steelers, winners of two championships in the last five seasons, began the year with much doubt. Their fearless QB, Ben Roethlisberger, was suspended for the first four games of the year, and he city of Pittsburgh was anxious to see if their team could remain in the hunt with a backup. Yet, the Steelers marched through their early-season adversity and won their first three in a row, and five out of their first six. Pittsburgh went on to achieve a 12-4 record and earned the #2 seed in the AFC, as well as a first round bye. After downing hated division rival Baltimore in the first round, and edging the New Jory Jets in the AFC Title game, the Steelers are headed to their 8th Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.


Meanwhile, Green Bay is on a mission as well. Early Super Bowl favorites, the Packers got off to a bit of a slow start, and needed to win their last two in a row to sneak into the playoffs. From there, it was a dominant run over the Eagles, Falcons and Bears to get back to the big game. Aaron Rodgers has been nothing short of phenomenal, and the Pack have scratched and clawed their way from the 6th seed in the NFC to make their 5th Super Bowl appearance.


Tonight's game matches two of the most storied franchises in NFL history, and it's sure to be a classic. This article will cover each team, position by position, in an attempt to predict who will emerge victorious in Super Bowl XLV! So let's get things started, shall we?



Quarterback


Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers, both under 30 years of age, have proven themselves to be fantastic leaders for their respective clubs. Rodgers has been absolutely incredible this season, especially in the playoffs. In three games, Rodgers has thrown for 788 yards (262.6 ypg) and six touchdowns, just two picks, as well as a rushing touchdown. Although Roethlisberger's numbers are never pretty, the man always seems to find a way to get it done. Two weeks ago in the AFC title game, Big Ben went an atrocious 10-19, for 133 yards and two interceptions. Despite those horrendous stats, Roethlisberger still managed to hook up with Antonio Brown (who?) for 14 yards and seal a Pittsburgh victory, sending them to the Super Bowl for the third time in the Roethlisberger era. Both quarterbacks also have the added edge of being able to run the ball, so there's always that factor. If asked which quarterback will have a better game statistically, I'd say that it's Rodgers without a doubt. If asked who the better quarterback will be at the end of the game, I honestly couldn't tell you. This one's a toss-up, and though Big Ben has the experience, I believe Rodgers will emerge as the top dog as far as quarterbacks go.


Winner: Green Bay



Running Back


Green Bay's running game has been given a spark.. or Stark, if you will. James Starks has seemingly come out of nowhere, running for 263 yards in three post-season games, and one score. In addition to this, the Pack also relies on big man John Kuhn in short yardage situations. The two-headed dog has certainly made some noise in the playoffs. On the flipside, Rashard Mendenhall has been fantastic in two post-season games, rushing for 167 yards and three touchdowns. Although Starks is flashy, and Kuhn is a powerhouse, I have to give the nod to Mendenhall, as he has been consistent all season, and he has produced the most where it counts: the endzone.


Winner: Pittsburgh




Wide Receiver


This one's an interesting match up of some veteran wide outs in Donald Driver vs. Hines Ward. Then, of course, there's Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace. The Green Bay receivers have accumulated the higher totals, but this is reflective of the dominant performances strung together by Aaron Rodgers. However, I'm going with Pittsburgh once again here as I believe Wallace is one of the more explosive receivers in the game today, and Ward is a wise veteran who always comes up with the big play. Point for black and yellow.


Winner: Pittsburgh




Tight End


The Packers haven't had much in the way of a tight end this year since losing Jermichael Finley early. This is one position where Pittsburgh is sure to have the edge, as Heath Miller has accumulated 544 yards and two scores this season, and just as with Ward, he always seems to make the catch when it counts the most. Once again, the nod goes to Pittsburgh.


Winner: Pittsburgh




Offensive Line


Here's another close one for ya. In the 2010 regular season, Aaron Rodgers was sacked a total of 31 times. And Roethlisberger? 32. Both defensive units will be bringing the pressure, and it's going to be up to the O-line to get things done. It's another toss-up, but I'll give the slight edge to Green Bay, as I think Rodgers has the speed to make his line look better. He may be pressured just as much, if not more, but I believe Big Ben will eat turf more often in this one.


Winner: Green Bay




Defense


It's #1 vs. #2. Pittsburgh has long been a strong defensive team, but it's Green Bay's defense who has helped propel the Pack into the big game. Polamalu is a machine, and Harrison's punishing defense is sure to make an impact. On the other side, Clay Matthews has made quite a name for himself this year as well, and there's always the threat of Charles Woodson. Both defenses have the threat of explosive plays, and despite how close the other positions have been so far, I believe this one's an even closer match up. I'm going with a toss-up here.


Winner: Toss-up




Kicking/Special Teams


This is another arrea I feel Green Bay is going to struggle, as they have shown this post-season that they aren't quite as good as the rest of their team. All you have to think back to is three weeks ago in Atlanta, when they gave up a 100 yard return for a score. On the flip side, I believe Green Bay trusts Mason Crosby far more than Pittsburgh trusts Suisham, but then again the game is indoors so we may see more kicking than we have in recent weeks. If the Pack can cover kicks and punts well, which I believe it can, then they'll stay in the game. The one man to be fearful, though, is Antwaan Randle El. I believe that if it comes down to a clutch kick, however, that Crosby is a far more reliable candidate and so I will go with Green Bay here.


Winner: Green Bay



Coaching


Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has slowly begun making quite a name for himself in his brief tenure with the Steelers. He has shown confidence in his team, but has also done so in a quiet manner. He gets things done effectively, and always has his team ready to play. Mike McCarthy is making his first appearance in the Super Bowl, and though he has coached his team through three tough games so far, he still makes some decisions which leave something to be desired. I'll go with Tomlin.


Winner: Pittsburgh




And so now it comes down to the winner. Green Bay's got the quarterback, the O-Line and the special teams, while Pitt has the receiving, defense and coaching. This is sure to be a classic match up between two of the most historic franchises in all of sports. But when it's all said and done, who will emerge victorious? I've been picking the Super Bowl winner for seven years now, and until last year my mark was undefeated. This includes the Giants upset of New England three years ago. However, last year I made the mistake of discrediting the underdog in New Orleans, and saw no way for the Saints to top the Colts. This year, seeing how the Steelers are back in the title game for the third time in six years, and how they're 2-0 in that span, the experience factor is a bit lopsided. That being said, I believe the Packers bring something different to the table, something neither Seattle or Arizona had in each of Pitt's first two wins in this past decade. Just as the Giants were in Super Bowl XLII, and the Saints were last year, I believe the Packers are a team of destiny and despite the fact that many of their players are here for the first time, I see the Pack getting it done in an extremely tight contest. I'm going with Green Bay.


Winner: Green Bay-27 Pittsburgh-24



Enjoy the game, everyone!!!