
Welcome back, sportz freaks! It's been almost a year since I last posted on here, but the NFL playoffs are always a cause for celebration and, of course, sportz talk! It's been one hell of a football season: the Lions are up, the Colts are down, the Texans are in the playoffs (finally), and Tebowmania has officially begun to run wild. My Dolphins are out of the hunt again, but I feel that this team has a ton of potential and with a new coach (and hopefully a new QB), the fins can become contenders once again. Moving on to the post-season, the field of twelve was decided last weekend. Teams like the Giants, Falcons, and Steelers scratched and crawled to earn as high a seed as possible, each coming away with week 17 victories. Then there are teams like the Texans, Broncos and Bengals, each of whom come limping into the second season: the Texans have lost three straight and are on their fourth starting quarterback (if Yates can't go); the Broncos, riding high a month ago, have also lost three in a row, the most miserable coming against the Chiefs in week 17 when they scored just three points in an ugly effort; The Bengals, although not quite as bad off as the aforementioned Houston and Denver clubs, stumbled in their efforts last week against division foe Baltimore, and needed some outside help in order to make the post-season. No matter the circumstance, each of these twelve teams has found a way to continue playing in January, and this Saturday the quest for Lombardi's Trophy begins. Eight of the twelve clubs will kick things off this weekend, while the Pats, Ravens, Packers and yes, the 49ers, sit at home awaiting their next opponent. So enough of the chit chat, let's get down to business, starting with the early game Saturday...
AFC: #6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) @ #3 Houston Texans (10-6)
4:30 PM Saturday is when it all gets started, and it will be the Cincinnati Bengals headed to Houston to take on the AFC South champs, the Houston Texans. Wait...let me read that back. Yup, that's right.. not only did the Bengals and Texans BOTH make it to the playoffs, but one of these two clubs is actually going to advance to the divisional round. Eesh. Now, I don't have a problem with either of these two teams making it this far, as both Houston and Cincy have earned it. Have they both struggled as of late? Yes. But I won't take anything away from them, either. Cincinnati was not even on the post-season blueprint when the season began. The Bengals were supposed to finish .500 at best and miss the playoffs once again. However, rookies have prevailed in helping this franchise become a legitimate contender. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been nothing short of sensational, and wide receiver AJ Green has been outstanding. Add the veteran leadership of running back Cedric Benson and solid play on defense, and the Bengals were able to battle their way into the AFC field of six, despite finishing third in their own division.
Houston, meanwhile, has had more injuries than I care to count. Yet, this beat-up bunch of backups has won their division for the first time (an injured Peyton Manning discussion will not be had here, but feel free to argue on your own :D ) and achieve the #3 seed. Star wideout Andre Johnson, no stranger to injuries, found himself sidelined for the majority of the season, but hopes to be healthy for Saturday's showdown. Last year's leading rusher, Arian Foster, has missed his fair share of games this year as well and backup Ben Tate has filled in nicely when called upon. In addition to that, Mario Williams, the Texans #1 draft pick just five years ago, has been placed on injured reserve and will not be back this season. And all of this comes before we even get into the quarterback fiasco. Matt Schaub, who had been phenomenal for Houston in the past two seasons, was sidelined early in the year and second string Matt Leinart was asked to step in. With a chance to renew his image, Leinart succumbed to the injury bug as well and a rookie out of the University of North Carolina, TJ Yates, was the new hero. Yates was playing well until he, too, got injured in week 17. However, it appears that Houston will not have to resort to such horrifying measures of bringing in Jake Delhomme, and TJ will be back in time for the game this weekend.
So, where does this all leave us? While both these teams have been decent, neither has blown anyone out of the water, and it is difficult to determine who is going to come away from this one. In fact, I've labeled this the toughest game to predict of the four taking place this weekend. It may not be an instant classic, but Cincinnati and Houston battled a few weeks back, a game in which the Texans edged their opposition 20-19. So there may still be hope of a good game. Who wins it is an entirely different story. Breaking this one down position by position, I'd have to give the edge to the Bengals in terms of quarterback play. Yates has been good, but Dalton has stayed healthy and played consistently, two important factors when evaluating any player. The better running game and defensive unit belongs to Houston, however. Foster and Tate are machines, and when one isn't running for 100 yards, the other one is right there accomplishing that feat themselves. Benson has played tough all year, but there's no denying that Houston has one of the scariest rushing attacks, if not the scariest, in the league. Both defenses have played well also, but the Texan 'D' has been far more consistent, and can always be trusted to step up and make a big play when needed. The wide receivers and tight ends are sort of a toss up, as I will take an Andre Johnson over anyone the Bengals can name, healthy or not. However, the Bengals have a bit more luxury when it comes to numbers. By that, I mean they have more choices in terms of who they can throw to. Green is outstanding, but let's not forget about Jerome Simpson who will be on Sports Center's top 10 for the next ten years for his unbelievable acrobatics display a few weeks back, and Jermaine Gresham who is healthy just in time to make a statement. Houston has a dynamic duo in Joel Dreesen and Owen Daniels in the tight end position, however.
Before a decision can be made, let's first take a look at some team stats that may help figure out who has the edge in the early game. The Texans are 5-3 at home this season, while Cincinnati is 5-3 on the road. One thing that stands out in these two teams' schedules is the fact that the Bengals are 0-7 against teams that made the playoffs this season. That's a tough statistic to evaluate, as one might claim that Cincinnati hasn't "beaten anyone", but one could also argue that the Bengals' only losses came to playoff-caliber clubs. The Texans, on the other hand, went 3-2 against teams in the post-season, including a win over Pittsburgh, who the Bengals failed to defeat in two attempts this season.
When it's all said and done, and the dust has settled, I see Houston running it close to 30 times in an effort to tire the Bengals and sooner or later Cincinnati will not be able to keep up with the Foster-Tate combination. This game will be won on good, old-fashioned running and defensive strategies. Yates will just be a placeholder in this scheme and the Texans will survive, be it by the skin of their teeth once again.
Prediction: Houston's 1-2 ground attack enough to down Bengals; Texans win 22-20.
NFC: #6 Detroit Lions (10-6) @ #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
If the Detroit Lions had any hopes of making it far in the post-season, the might very well have been dashed in week 17 when they lost a shootout to Green Bay, and the Falcons annihilated the Bucs. These two results combined to drop the Lions from their position in the #5 seed down to #6, and boosted Atlanta into their spot. Doesn't seem like too big of a deal until you understand that the 5th seeded team must head to the Meadowlands (not easy to win there, but do-able), while the 6th seed must travel into the unforgiving Super Dome in New Orleans. There, the 2011 NFC South Champion Saints are 8-0 on the year, and are working on an eight game winning streak to end the regular season. Drew Brees has been absolutely unreal in leading his team to a 13-3 record, and breaking Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season along the way. The Saints have looked strong all season, and are poised to earn themselves a rematch with the Packers in the NFC title game, a team they lost to in a shootout in the season opener.
Looking across the way at their opponents, the Lions come in having lost in the final week of the season to division foe Green Bay, but having won three in a row before-hand. The concern, then, comes with the fact that the Lions faced a Packers team who had nothing left to play for, who benched star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and who lit the Detroit defense up for six touchdowns en route to a 45-41 victory. Two losses to the Pack aside, the Lions have had a phenomenal season by Detroit standards, finishing with a 10-6 record and second place in the NFC North division. The team got off to a hot start, winning their first five in a row before losing to the 49ers in week 6. On the whole, it was an up-and-down season for Detroit, but the Lions have to be proud of giving their franchise meaningful football in January for the first time since 1999. A win on Saturday would allow them to take one more crack at Green Bay for a slot in the NFC title game.
Let's break it down now, shall we? At quarterback, there is no denying that Drew Brees is the out and out favorite in terms of play in this position. Matt Stafford, however, is no scrub. Stafford passed for a whopping 5,038 yards this season, and has been a key reason for the Lions' success. I'm giving the slight nod to New Orleans here, but this is a lot closer than it may seem. The running back situation is a tricky one. The Lions have gone through a rotation of backs this year, starting with Jahvid Best, but Best was injured mid-way through the year and in stepped Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams. When neither of those became sufficient replacements, veteran Kevin Smith rose from the dead and put up stellar numbers over the course of five games. Smith appears to be the go-to guy now, but look for Morris and Williams to get some work this weekend as well. New Orleans will be without rookie Mark Ingram, but for arguments sake this isn't much of a disadvantage on their part. Pierre Thomas has been far more productive, and Darren Sproles is downright unstoppable. Thomas will likely get the bulk of the carries, while Sproles plays his role as the receiving back. The combination of these two is nothing short of lethal. The wideout position is another one of intrigue, as the Saints certainly bring a slew of weapons to the table. Marques Colston, after missing part of the season with an injury, is back and is playing very well. In addition to Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and tight end Jimmy Graham have been big role players for the Saints, with Graham being the biggest sensation of all. The lions, on the other hand, will send out the man known as "Megatron", aka Calvin Johnson. This guy ma very well be the best receiver in the NFL today, and he has posted outstanding numbers: 96 receptions for 1,681 yards and a whopping sixteen touchdowns. Johnson has been a monster, and while the Saints defense has been strong, he will almost certainly find pay dirt at least once on Saturday night. Alongside Johnson, the pickings aren't all that great, but Titus Young and Nate Burleson have played fairly well this season, and tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been great as well. The 45 points the Lions gave up to Green Bay's second stringers should be enough to tell you who gets the edge on defense.
This is another tough game to decide, but perhaps one sort of 'intangible' factor that will come largely into play is the discipline on the part of the Lions. Detroit is the second most penalized team in the NFL, and has often shown a lack of maturity on the playing field. This is seen most often when the Lions play Green Bay, but flags were also flying against Detroit when they met the Saints back in week 13. Ndamukong Suh is the highest offender here, as he has been fined and suspended on more than one occasion since entering the league in 2010 out of Nebraska. His antics and somewhat 'dirty' play have gotten the Lions into trouble more than once, but perhaps some of the blame should be shifted toward head coach Jim Schwarz, whose week 6 hand-shake debacle with San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh was laughable at best. If Schwarz does not adjust the egos and attitudes of his club before Saturday, it could be a looong night in New Orleans.
The bottom line here is that this one is setting up nicely to be a shootout. In week 13, the Saints bested Detroit 31-17, with Brees going off for 342 yards and 3 scores. Stafford had an even more impressive 408 yards, much of which came when the Lions were trailing by 17 in the third quarter. I think this game could reflect similar numbers, but the question is whether or not Detroit will be able to keep up with the high-powered New Orleans offense. They couldn't five weeks ago, and I don't really see much changing on Saturday, either. This one will be close early, but Brees and company will pull away in the fourth en route to another double-digit victory, albeit a smaller one.
Prediction: Saints win 9th straight on Brees' 350 and 3, oust Lions 34-24
NFC: #5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ #4 New York Giants (9-7)
Finally, we come to a case of two teams who are coming in feeling great about themselves after the way each performed in week 17. As mentioned earlier, the Atlanta Falcons absolutely smoked Tampa Bay en route to the NFC's 5th seed, and will head to the Metropolitan area on Sunday afternoon. The Giants, masters of the roller coaster season, finished the 2011 regular season with a decisive win over division rival Dallas and won the East by one game. The Falcons are making their third consecutive trip to the post-season after being ousted in each of their first playoff games in 2009 and 2010. Last year's 13-3 campaign and #1 overall seed came to a screeching halt when Atlanta was pounded by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Matt Ryan has been sensational since the bye, however, and Atlanta is looking for its first playoff victory since the 1998-1999 season, a year in which the Falcons reached the championship.
New York has had a much different season compared to that of this Sunday's foe. The G-men, predicted by some to finish dead last in their own division, showed signs of great maturity and talent in some instances, and complete and utter confusion in others. There were games in which Eli Manning was untouchable, and times where it appeared he was back to his old, goofy self. Sometimes the defense came in and made big plays, and other times it was virtually nonexistent. All that matters is that somehow, someway, the New York Giants have won their division and will host a playoff game on the 8th. The Giants are three point favorites at home, and this should be a dandy.
Since their bye in week 8, the Falcons have gone 6-3, but all three losses came against teams in this year's playoff pool. They were narrowly defeated in Houston in week 13, and were beaten on two occasions by the New Orleans Saints, including a 45-16 beat down in week 16. One might argue that Atlanta has any post-season credibility what-so-ever, considering their hot streak consisted of wins over lowly Jacksonville, even lower Indianapolis, Tennessee, Minnesota, Tampa and perhaps their only impressive win over Carolina. The only win over a team who finished above .500 was Tennessee, and the six victories came over teams with a combined record of 29-67. In fact, Atlanta's only win over a playoff team came way back in week 7, when they knocked off Detroit in what would prove to be a huge game in terms of tie-breakers. Nonetheless, the Falcons are 10-6 and are playing very well right now, and may be tough to stop.
The Giants are just 4-4 at home this season, including mind-numbing losses to the Seahawks and Redskins. To their credit, however, the G-men went through perhaps one of the toughest stretches ever assembled when they faced New England, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay and Dallas in weeks 9-14, respectively. Though they only came away with two wins in those six contests, the Giants fought tough to stay alive in the division, capping off hell month with a win at Dallas, and then finishing off Romo and the Cowboys at home in week 17. This magical run to the post-season has been seen before in New York. Could we be seeing another Super Bowl appearance from New York's best?
The battle of quarterbacks here is very interesting, as both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have shown signs of brilliance, and at times have not looked so great either. At his best, the younger Manning brother is close to being one of the best in the game. At his worst, Eli is bottom of the barrel material. So which Eli will we get on Sunday? It's hard to tell, but one thing he's got working for him is his ability to win big games. Eli has been here and done it before, as he led his team to three straight road victories en route to a championship in 2008. The issue, then, comes in determining whether or not Manning can win a playoff game at home. The Giants' last two post-season home games ended in disaster, as they were ousted by the Eagles the year after their title, and shutout by Carolina a few seasons earlier. Winning in the post-season is something Eli is accustomed to, but can he do it in front of the hostile New York crowd?
Matt Ryan is having a great year as well, throwing for over 4,100 yards and 29 TDs, while only accounting for 12 interceptions. His biggest concern is in the turnover category, where he has fumbled the ball five times this season and lost it three. If Ryan can protect the ball, and if the offensive line can protect Ryan, the Falcons should have a ton of success on the Giants' weak secondary. That may not be as easy as it sounds, however, as the Giants' front line is finally healthy for the first time all season, and could wreak havoc in the Atlanta backfield. The key for New York is to constantly apply pressure to Ryan. If they force him to make tough throws, the Giants will be in great shape. If they give him all day, well, you know what happens next, right New Orleans?
The ground game is a tough one to analyze as well. Michael Turner has been a beast for Atlanta as of late, and he finished the year with 1,300 yards rushing alone with 11 scores. Turner has had his fair share of ball-control issues too, however, as he put the ball on the ground three times in 2011 and lost it twice. Look for the Giants' defensive unit to try and take advantage of this early and often. On the other side, the carries have been split almost 50-50 between Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and neither came even close to sniffing the 1,000 yard mark. The two backs did, however, manage to reach the endzone a combined 16 times. The tough running of beast Brandon Jacobs combined with the speed of Ahmad Bradshaw has made the passing game that much smoother.
That leads me to the wide receivers and tight ends. I will take Tony Gonzalez over anyone the Giants have to offer, but the receiving corps is very close. Atlanta sends out last year's pro-bowl receiver Roddy White, as well as rookie sensation Julio Jones. The two have both had great years and if Ryan is given time, could scorch the New York secondary. The Giants, on the other hand, have found an incredible weapon in Victor Cruz, who just about single-handedly put the Giants in the playoffs. In addition to Cruz, look for Hakim Nicks and a combination of Ramses Barden and Mario Manningham to shine as well.
The Giants have combined for an astounding total of 48 sacks on the year, 25 of which have come from the efforts of Osi Umenyiora and the absolute machine, Jason Pierre-Paul, who accounted for 16.5 sacks this year. The Falcons' defense sacked the opposing quarterback sixteen times less, and let's face it, the ones they got to were not of the elite level. The interception totals were almost identical, with the Giants picking it off 20 times and the Falcons 19, two of which went for scores.
All things considered, this game seems to be a pretty even match. The Falcons did a great job of avoiding New Orleans in the first round, but will it pay off? The Giants got in with a big victory over the Cowboys, so can they ride this wave back to post-season glory? I think the biggest factor here is going to be turnovers. In the past nine weeks, Matt Ryan has thrown only four interceptions, two of which came against Houston's 2nd-ranked defense. The offensive line has protected Ryan very well, and I think the Giants will get to him once or twice but no more than that. The biggest concern for me is a lack of consistency from the Giants, particularly at home. Look for the G-Men to start strong and make some noise, but for Matt Ryan to stay composed and limit his mistakes.
Prediction: Ryan, Falcons soar past Giants 27-17
AFC: #5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) @ #4 Denver Broncos (8-8)
Ahh, at long last it's Tebow time. The question now is, will it be Tebow time on Sunday evening? The records say no, but those who believe in the hype known as Tebowmania would argue otherwise. About a month ago, this so-called "Tebowmania" took the NFL by storm as quarterback Tim Tebow led the hapless Denver Broncos to seven wins in eight games. Finally, a savior had been found. Since the Broncos beat the Bears in week 14, however, Denver has been on a major decline. Tebow's stats are at an all-time low, and the Broncos are hobbling into this weekend's match-up having lost three in a row, including two embarrassing defeats at the hands of Buffalo (6-10) and Kansas City (7-9). The Broncos have a 1-3 record against teams that made the playoffs, with their only victory coming in week 2 against Cincinnati. They are also a measely 3-5 in their own building. The team has been extremely tough to read, and it's hard to tell exactly what Tebow and company we will see come Sunday.
On the other side, the Steelers have been the same-old Steelers. They won twelve of sixteen games, and all four losses came to playoff teams, including two against division rival Baltimore. Since their bye in week 11, Pittsburgh has won five out of six, and their defense has been nothing s hoort of phenomenal. In those six contests, the Steelers have given up a total of just 48 points, 20 of which came against the NFC's 2nd seeded 49ers. Despite a slew of injuries and illnesses, the Steelers have managed to remain a strong contender in the AFC, and look poised to make another run at the Super Bowl. In addition to a great record, the defending AFC champs boast one of the toughest schedules of the year, having played seven teams which made the post-season, and going 3-4 in those contests. They are also 5-3 on the road this season.
Yet despite all evidence to the contrary, the Denver Broncos are far more competitive than one might believe. Tebow has led his troops to five come-from-behind victories, and just when you think Denver is down for the count, the Broncos somehow find a way to win. That luster has seemingly worn off in the past month, however. New England had their way with them, and Tebow's heroics weren't even enough to score more than three points against the Chiefs, at home no less. However, thanks to the efforts of the San Diego Chargers, the Broncos backed their way into an AFC West title and the #4 seed in the playoffs. Was it fate, or just plain luck?
One thing working in the Broncos' favor is that Pittsburgh enters this Sunday's game battered and bruised. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has had ankle issues over the past month, starting running back Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year after suffering an MCL tear in week 17, and safety Ryan Clark will not be playing due to illness. Also, starting center Maurkice Pouncey, who has had his own set of ankle problems this year, is questionable to play. Doug Legursky would get the start if Pouncey is unable to go. Broncos' safety Brian Dawkins will also be out, suffering from a neck injury. Will the injuries be enough to prevent Pittsburgh from heading to either Baltimore or New England for the divisional round?
Position-by-position, Roethlisberger has the edge in the majority of categories. He's got the better arm, more experience, and a willingness to win every game he's in. Big beg is also usually a decent runner, but ankle problems will inhibit that this weekend. Tebow has only his determination to win working for him. He's not much of a passer, and his running isn't too shabby, but what it comes down to for Tim Tebow is that he often refuses to lose. Regardless, I don't really see a gun-slinging type of performance, but rather a slow-paced game from both teams as they rely on the run to get the job done.
As mentioned, Rashard Mendenhall is out so it's Isaac Redman who will be getting the bulk of the carries with Mewelde Moore getting some time as well. Redman has filled in nicely when called upon, and has even stolen some carries from Mendenhall when needed (trust me, I had Rashard on my fantasy team). Redman has a stellar 4.4 yards per carry average on the season, and accumulated almost 500 yards and three touchdowns despite just over 100 carries. The Denver rushing attack has been fantastic this year, with Willis McGahee leading the charge. McGahee has almost 1,200 yards on the season and found pay dirt four times. He is also good for a reception or two a game out of the backfield. Tebow is no stranger to the ground game either, having totaled a whopping 660 yards on the ground and scoring six times.
The Pittsburgh receiving corps is fierce, and Roethlisberger certainly has his fair share of targets to choose from. The Steelers had two different receivers top 1,100 yards for the season: Mike Wallace (1,193) and Antonio Brown (1,108). Wallace reached the endzone eight times while Brown scored twice. Wallace will most likely draw Champ Bailey in coverage, and Bailey has still got it. Look for Wallace to be semi-productive but if any Steeler receiver is going to have a decent game it should be Antonio Brown. Denver's aerial attack consists mainly of Demaryius Thomas, with Eric Decker having seemingly fallen off the face of the earth. Decker had a hot start to the season, and finished the year with 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Lately, Tebow has found much more comfort in throwing to Thomas, who finished the 2011 campaign with 551 yards and four scores. The Pittsburgh 'D' has been great against the pass, and especially deep passes, however, so don't expect too much action through the air on either side.
This game shapes up to be somewhat of a defensive battle. The Broncos have not been good at stopping the opposition from scoring, but they have had some success in reaching the quarterback and with Big Ben hobbled, they may find even more. The Steeler defense is self-explanatory, as it has been a mainstay of Pittsburgh football for many years. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley each accounted for 9 sacks this year, although Troy Polamalu has been somewhat quiet, having only gotten one sack and two interceptions on the year. For the Broncos, it will be Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil getting after Roethlisberger. Miller and Dumervil have combined for twenty-one sacks on the year, and could prove problematic for the Steeler offensive line. The O-line in Pittsburgh has had a rough time protecting their two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback, as Roethlisberger has been sacked an astounding forty times this season.
When 4:30 rolls around on Sunday, will it be two-time champion Ben Roethlisberger or two-time college national champion who emerges victorious? I see this one being a very tough, gritty battle, and we may even see some snow. That won't really affect Pittsburgh, who has played plenty of cold-weather games, but it could play to Denver's advantage in the running game. The Steelers are an eight point pick on the road, but I think this is going to be much closer. Denver is going to pressure Roethlisberger for the majority of the game, and if the offensive line can't protect him it's going to be a long night. Call me insane, but I'm serving this one up as my shocker special of the weekend. I think the injuries are finally going to take their toll on the defending AFC champs, and they will be ousted early as a result. Take this to the bank: The Denver Broncos will sack Big Ben 4-6 times and the combined running efforts of Tebow and McGahee will wear out the older Steeler defenders en route to a stunning victory.
Prediction: Defense comes up big as Broncos shock the world. Denver wins, 20-17.
There you have it. Give me Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta, and yes, the Denver Broncos this weekend to advance to the divisional playoffs. For everyone whose team is in, good luck, and to those of you (like myself) whose teams are already on the golf course... enjoy Wild Card Weekend! Join me next weekend as I predict the divisional round games. Catch ya later, sportz freaks!